Russia & Europe: War Risk Rises – A New Reality?

European defense insiders have warned that the continent is unprepared for a potential war with Russia within the next few years, citing chronic underfunding and a lack of public readiness. The assessment comes from a recent gathering of defense experts convened by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.

Growing Concerns Over Russian Aggression

Participants at the RUSI conference – including current and former members of the armed forces, government and NATO officials, researchers, and defense industry professionals – based their concerns on intelligence assessments indicating Russia is preparing for a possible direct conflict with Europe. Experts agree the only way to prevent war is to ensure Europe is capable of winning one.

Security experts are increasingly emphasizing the need for a shift in mindset, urging European governments to prepare their citizens for the possibility of conflict and acknowledge that the era of ignoring the threat of war is over. “I think that there is an indication that societies are willing to have this conversation, but I think that we are also seeing governments that are still not quite confident enough to have that conversation with their publics,” said Sam Greene, a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London.

Evidence of Hybrid Warfare

Experts point to a growing consensus that Russia is already waging a hybrid war against the West through sabotage operations, disinformation campaigns, and incursions into NATO airspace. Recent examples include repeated incursions by Russian planes and drones into NATO airspace, GPS jamming in the Baltics, and sabotage attacks against critical infrastructure in multiple countries. Russia has consistently denied involvement in these incidents.

These attacks have already shifted public opinion in Europe, even if some politicians are hesitant to label them as hybrid warfare. “I think that people are spooked, particularly as this becomes more visible,” Greene said. “We see drones outside airports, and I think that there is a growing sense that it is probably (only) a matter of time before one of these drones brings down an airliner.”

NATO Preparedness and Timelines

While Moscow has not directly attacked NATO allies, experts believe this is partly due to Russia’s current military limitations. However, warnings are mounting that this could change. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has cautioned that Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul echoed this warning, stating German intelligence believes Moscow is considering war against NATO by 2029.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in December that Russia is not planning war with Europe, but added, “if Europe suddenly wants to go to war with us and starts, we are ready right now.” The consensus among Baltic countries is that an attack could occur within three years. Researchers at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School identified 2027 and 2028 as the most frequently mentioned years for potential conflict.

Defense Spending and Public Support

NATO has developed contingency plans to defend against potential Russian aggression against the Baltics, but experts warn these plans are insufficient. “There’s a plan, with numbers. But the governments are not taking the necessary steps to implement it. We are still planning based on things that don’t exist,” said Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at RUSI. He emphasized the need to base defense strategies on available resources rather than wishful thinking.

A recent strategic review commissioned by the British government presented a plan for preparing for war. Gen. Richard Barrons, a lead author of the review, stated the UK must rethink infrastructure resilience, build up armed forces and reserves, and invest in its economy to enable a rapid shift to a war footing. “We frankly don’t need much more analysis to tell us what it is we need to do. The problem is that we need to actually do it,” he said.

Most European nations have increased defense spending in response to the changing security landscape. Thirty-one of NATO’s 32 members are projected to meet the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense this year, up from just six in 2021. NATO members agreed in June to increase the target to 5% by 2035.

Challenges to Public Readiness

Despite growing concern, convincing voters to support increased defense spending and potential sacrifices remains a challenge. Several Eurobarometer surveys this year showed that 78% of Europeans are concerned about the EU’s defense and security, and a third believe defense should be a spending priority. However, France’s armed forces chief, Gen. Fabien Mandon, faced criticism last month for warning the French public to prepare for potential losses in a conflict with Russia, stating France must “accept losing its children.”

Robin Potter, an academy associate at Chatham House, noted that public willingness to accept sacrifices varies significantly across Europe. “If you’re in the east, if you perhaps border Russia, if you’re in Poland or in the Baltic states, the threat is very real for people there, and they are taking a lot more steps in terms of public shelters because they think the risk of an air attack is higher,” he said.

Sweden and Finland have updated guidance for citizens on surviving war, while Lithuania, Latvia, and Sweden have reintroduced conscription. Other countries have implemented voluntary military training programs. Potter believes that public trust in institutions is a key factor in fostering a willingness to contribute to collective defense, citing the Nordic states as examples of societies with strong civic duty and “total defense” concepts.