President Donald Trump is considering potential military responses to ongoing unrest in Iran, including targeted strikes against security forces and leaders, according to multiple sources. The potential actions come as talks between Washington and Tehran have stalled regarding Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Trump Weighs Options for Intervention in Iran
US sources familiar with the discussions indicated Trump aims to create conditions for “regime change” following a recent crackdown on nationwide protests that resulted in thousands of deaths. Options under consideration include strikes targeting commanders and institutions deemed responsible for the violence, with the goal of bolstering protester confidence.
One source suggested a larger strike targeting Iran’s nuclear or ballistic missile programs is also being discussed. However, Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action.
On Wednesday, Trump urged Iran to negotiate a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future US attack would be more severe than previous military actions. He described the US naval presence in the region as an “armada.”
Limits of Air Power and Regional Concerns
A senior Iranian official stated Iran is “preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels,” but believes Washington is not demonstrating openness to diplomacy.
Israeli officials have expressed skepticism that airstrikes alone would be sufficient to topple the Iranian government. One senior Israeli official stated that “If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” and even the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would likely be met with a successor.
Multiple US intelligence reports reportedly share this assessment, concluding that while the conditions leading to the protests remain, they have not created major fractures within the Iranian government.
Khamenei’s Control and Potential for Instability
At 86, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reduced his public appearances and is believed to be residing in secure locations following prior Israeli strikes. Day-to-day management has reportedly shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Despite this, Khamenei retains ultimate authority over key areas, making political change difficult without his departure. Some officials in Washington and Jerusalem believe a transition in leadership could resolve the nuclear deadlock and potentially lead to improved relations with the West.
However, there is no clear successor to Khamenei, raising concerns that the IRGC could consolidate power, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions. Arab officials and diplomats fear that turmoil within Iran could destabilize the region, potentially leading to civil war and disrupting oil flows.
Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt, have reportedly lobbied against a strike on Iran, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman informing Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.
Analysts suggest the most likely outcome is a gradual erosion of the Iranian system, potentially leading to elite defections, economic paralysis, and a contested succession.
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