A political analyst says South Africa’s global standing is declining as the world order shifts, with the United States increasingly charting its own course. North West University Professor Andre Duvenhage cited a decline in international support for South Africa, with implications for its politics and economy.
Global Order
US President Donald Trump has fundamentally altered the global order through “coercive diplomacy and assertive power politics,” according to Duvenhage. Trump’s interest in annexing Greenland and the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on charges related to drug trafficking and narco-terrorism demonstrate this shift.
Trump’s Next Move
The next action of the US, described as the world’s “last remaining superpower,” remains uncertain. However, Duvenhage believes Trump has already begun reshaping the global order.
“We are witnessing a changing world order, and increasingly the defining feature is that the period we know…as the Cold War era has finally come to an end,” Duvenhage said. “However, what we are entering now may be even more significant.”
A Divide Developing
The US is defining its own path and is less concerned with NATO, adopting an “America first” approach, Duvenhage explained. A divide is emerging between the United States and leading Western countries like France, Germany, Britain, and Spain, with Italy potentially aligning with the latter group.
What About SA?
Duvenhage is not optimistic about South Africa’s position in the changing world order. He noted a sharp decline in the country’s international support base.
“It is interesting to observe how South Africa’s position is being redefined within the changing world order. South Africa’s international support base is declining sharply, with far-reaching implications for its politics and economy, particularly for the ANC,” Duvenhage said. “There is little doubt that Trump has had a significant influence on this process, and I believe that there is more to come in the future.”
Iran
South Africa recently faced international scrutiny following the presence of three Iranian warships off False Bay. The US raised concerns, prompting a request for Iran to withdraw from naval drills. A now-deleted Facebook statement from the SANDF initially indicated Iran’s corvette Naghdi did participate in the exercise.
President Ramaphosa instructed defence minister Angie Motshekga to ensure Iran’s withdrawal, and a board of inquiry was appointed to investigate whether those instructions were ignored.
SA Slammed
The US Embassy in South Africa criticized Pretoria for allowing Iranian warships to participate in the naval exercises while Iran cracks down on anti-government protesters.
Damaging Relations
Defence analyst Helmoed-Römer Heitman warned that including Iran in the drills could damage relations with key trading partners in Europe and the US. Heitman added that Iran would likely not be significantly impacted by any resulting strain.
Tensions with US
Trump has repeatedly targeted South Africa with criticism, including unsubstantiated claims of systematic violence against white Afrikaners. He ambushed President Ramaphosa in the Oval Office by playing a video alleging a campaign against white farmers and later offered Afrikaners refugee status, with around 50 individuals flown to the US in May.
In October, South Africa criticized the US decision to prioritize refugee applications from white Afrikaners, stating that claims of a white genocide were widely discredited.
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