Donald Trump has initiated a conflict with Iran by declaring his intention to pursue regime change, a goal he links to domestic political objectives as he attempts to prevent a shift in power during the midterm elections. The president seeks a quick victory in Iran while simultaneously attempting to establish emergency authority over the electoral process, potentially prolonging a war to achieve the latter.
Trump’s Approach to Conflict
Trump’s entry into the conflict followed a pattern of negotiating in bad faith, resorting to bombing despite progress in talks, disregarding international law, and excluding congressional consultation, according to Oman’s foreign minister. He cited Iranian “imminent threats” as justification for military action, claims the Pentagon later briefed congressional staffers were unsubstantiated.
Declared “Off-Ramps” and Shifting Narratives
Trump has stated he has several “off-ramps” for the conflict, suggesting he could either fully take over Iran or end the conflict within days, contingent on Iran’s future actions regarding its nuclear and missile programs. However, his statements reveal a lack of strategic planning. Shortly after, he announced the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in an airstrike, acknowledging he is unsure of the consequences beyond further bombing.
Internal Discord and Dismissals
Three days before initiating the attack, the director of the joint chiefs of staff, Vice Adm. Fred Kacher, was removed from his position after only three months, with the Pentagon offering no explanation. Additionally, the chair of the joint chiefs, Gen. Dan Caine, cautioned Trump and other officials about potential shortfalls in munitions and lack of allied support, risks Trump dismissed.
Potential for Prolonged Conflict and Historical Parallels
Achieving regime change would require more than a swift operation, and Trump may face a prolonged stalemate similar to the situation in Ukraine, rather than a quick victory. In the initial wave of attacks, at least 100 children were killed in a strike on a school in southern Iran.
Economic Motivations and Allegations of Kleptocracy
A potential hidden strategy could involve gaining control of Iran’s natural resources, particularly oil, for distribution to allies and associates. Trump’s representatives, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are described as commercial agents, suggesting a potential replacement of Iran’s government with a “Trumpian” kleptocracy.
Fractured Coalition and Internal Criticism
Trump’s actions have fractured his political coalition, dividing his “America First” base from his core supporters. Former representative Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized Trump’s “betrayal,” questioning the acceptance of casualties in a war with Iran, despite previously advocating for an “America First” approach.
Shifting Foreign Policy Stance
Trump’s war with Iran contradicts his long-standing promise to avoid foreign conflicts, a key component of his “America First” appeal. An ally of JD Vance, Sohrab Ahmari, expressed disillusionment, noting the resurgence of neoconservative influence within the Trump administration.
Reversal of Previous Promises
Trump previously criticized Barack Obama for potentially starting a war with Iran and condemned Jeb Bush’s involvement in the Iraq War. He also pledged to end “nation-building and regime change” during his 2016 campaign.
Withdrawal from JCPOA and Deportation of Asylum Seekers
Trump initiated the conflict by withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program. Simultaneously, his administration made a deal with Iran to deport Iranian asylum seekers, including vulnerable individuals facing persecution, reversing decades of US policy.
Linking Iran and Domestic Politics
Trump appears to be using the conflict with Iran to bolster his political standing ahead of the midterm elections, framing both Iran and the Democrats as enemies. He has also sought to justify seizing control of elections under the pretext of a national emergency, and his Department of Justice has demanded comprehensive voter details from multiple states.
Public Opinion and Escalating Tensions
Polls conducted before the start of the war indicated limited public support for military action against Iran. While military actions often lead to a temporary increase in approval ratings, a recent poll showed only about 27% of Americans supported the strikes.
Trump’s actions are driven by a cycle of repulsion and retribution, with each instance of unpopularity fueling further acts of revenge. He struggles to accept rejection, attributing his failures to external forces and portraying himself as a victim. His pursuit of war is, in part, an attempt to deflect from personal legal troubles, including those related to the Epstein case.
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