Donald Trump’s return to the White House has coincided with a significant shift in the global order, according to a new analysis of international diplomatic alignments.
Geopolitical Realignment Favors China
A report from Focaldata, which analyzes UN voting records, reveals how Washington’s “America First” agenda has begun to redraw the geopolitical map in favor of China. The analysis indicates the world is now diplomatically closer to Beijing than it has been in recent memory, with notable shifts occurring during the start of Trump’s second presidential term.
Focaldata’s analysis uses UN general assembly votes as a proxy for geopolitical alignment, based on the principle that countries consistently voting similarly on contested resolutions tend to share common interests. By measuring the correlation between each country’s voting record and those of the US or China, researchers mapped how the geopolitical center of gravity is moving away from Washington and toward Beijing.
The number of countries strongly aligned with the US has decreased under Trump, while China has maintained its existing alliances. Comparing Trump’s time in office with the administrations of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the number of countries strongly aligned with the US has fallen from 46 to just seven.
Though many countries historically aligned with the US continue to vote with Washington, they are doing so with less consistency. Traditional US allies in Europe, North America, and Asia are voting with the US less frequently.
Canada, South Korea, Japan, Germany, and the UK significantly deviated from the US in terms of UN voting patterns in 2025.
The research assigns each country’s voting record a score ranging from +1 (always voting with China) to -1 (always voting with the US).
A key point of divergence has been Ukraine. In February 2025, the US sided with Russia, Belarus, and North Korea to vote against a resolution condemning Russia for the war in Ukraine.
Another area of disagreement was Israel’s war in Gaza. In June 2025, the US voted against a resolution calling for the protection of civilians and upholding legal and humanitarian obligations in Gaza, while the majority of western countries supported the resolution. China also voted in favor.
The US also vetoed a security council resolution for an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, disagreeing with Russia, China, France, and the UK. Disagreements also arose on resolutions concerning the environment, health, and migration, where China and most western countries aligned, but the US opposed.
As a result, NATO and European states, once the foundation of American global influence, are now voting less reliably with the US. This shift is largely attributed to the US taking increasingly controversial stances on the world stage, isolating it from its longstanding allies.
Meanwhile, China has preserved close relationships with its allies and begun cultivating new ones. This year has seen visits by the Canadian and British prime ministers to China for the first time in eight years.
On a regional level, Asia, Africa, and South America tend to be more aligned with China, though the latter began to move more towards the US during Trump’s first term.
This shift is occurring not necessarily due to increased pro-China sentiment in Europe, but because the US and Europe are voting together less often. The UK’s alignment with the US in UN votes is at its lowest level since records began, with a steep decline in the past year, coinciding with hopes of thawing relations between London and Beijing.
The report indicated that only Argentina and Israel were aligned with the Trump White House in 2025.
The combined economic power of Chinese-aligned countries is now greater than that of US-aligned countries under Trump, a reversal from the Obama and Biden years when the US’s western allies held greater economic power.
Patrick Flynn, a data journalist and author of the report, stated, “Our report uncovered not only how quickly the global order is shifting, but also the structure of influence between the two major poles of the US and China.” He likened China’s network to a beehive, resilient to individual disruptions, while US influence is more like a Jenga tower, reliant on a solid bloc of European countries that are increasingly distancing themselves.
The report suggests this trend is likely to continue. When countries are analyzed by projected economic growth, the fastest-growing economies are clustering closer to Beijing than Washington, located primarily in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Flynn added, “Weighting our axis by historic GDP levels, we see that the centre of gravity has been slowly moving towards China over the last 30 years. With China’s outsized influence among the fastest-growing economies, the global centre of gravity could well move into Chinese territory for the first time in the late 2030s.”
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