President Donald Trump’s assertion that Iran is on the verge of possessing a missile capable of reaching the United States is disputed by US intelligence reports, which suggest the timeline is significantly longer, raising questions about the justification for potential military action.
Trump’s Claims Questioned
During his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump warned that Tehran was “working on missiles that will soon reach” the United States, framing a potential case for strikes against the Islamic Republic. However, three sources familiar with US intelligence assessments state there has been no recent change to a 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency report estimating Iran would likely not develop a “militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile” (ICBM) until 2035, based on its current satellite-launch vehicle (SLV) capabilities.
The White House has not commented on the discrepancy. One source indicated that even with assistance from China or North Korea, Iran would likely require at least eight years to develop an operational ICBM.
The sources, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the intelligence, acknowledged the possibility of a new, unreleased assessment but stated they were unaware of any such report. The New York Times previously reported similar findings from US intelligence agencies.
Negotiations and Regional Tensions
Trump’s claims come as US and Iranian representatives continue negotiations regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, with no apparent progress toward a resolution that could avert potential US military intervention amid a growing US military presence in the region. The president has offered limited public explanation for considering aggressive action against Iran since its 1979 revolution.
In his address, Trump cited Iran’s support for militant groups, its handling of protests, and its missile and nuclear programs as threats. He also alleged that Tehran was rebuilding its nuclear program, which he claimed had been “obliterated” by US airstrikes last June targeting uranium enrichment sites.
Differing Assessments
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a less definitive assessment on Wednesday, stating that Iran is “on a pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental US.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in an interview with India Today TV, denied expanding Iran’s missile capabilities. “We are not developing long range missiles. We have limited range to below 2000 kilometers intentionally,” he said. “We only have (them) to defend ourselves. Our missiles build deterrence.”
Nuclear Program Status
The US intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have stated that Iran discontinued its nuclear weapons development program in 2003. However, the IAEA has reported that Iran has continued enriching uranium in recent years, including to near weapons-grade levels.
Trump has threatened military action if Iran executes those arrested during January’s anti-government protests or fails to reach a nuclear agreement. Iran currently possesses the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, capable of reaching Israel, US bases in the region, and parts of Europe.
Experts note that while Iran has developed space-launch vehicles that could potentially be modified into ICBMs, significant work remains to develop a re-entry vehicle capable of surviving atmospheric re-entry with a nuclear warhead. David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector, emphasized that Iran is “a long way away” from achieving this capability.
Israeli airstrikes in 2024 and last year have reportedly damaged key facilities involved in the production of liquid- and solid-fuel ballistic missiles.
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