Donald Trump has warned Iran of potential attacks on its energy infrastructure, including desalination plants, raising concerns about escalating conflict and devastating consequences for water supplies across the Middle East. The former president’s statement, made on Truth Social, threatened retaliation if a deal to end the ongoing conflict isn’t reached and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Trump Threatens Iran’s Infrastructure
Trump stated that if conditions aren’t met, the U.S. will “conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched.’”
Analysts caution that the most significant danger may not be the direct impact on Iran, but rather Tehran’s potential retaliation against Gulf Arab states, which are heavily reliant on desalination for their water supply. Hundreds of these plants line the Persian Gulf coast, leaving major cities like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha vulnerable to Iranian missile or drone strikes.
“Desalination facilities are oftentimes necessary for the survival of the civilian population and intentional destruction of those types of facilities is a war crime,” said Niku Jafarnia, a researcher at Human Rights Watch.
Iranian media reports indicate that reservoirs supplying Tehran are below 10% capacity after a fifth year of extreme drought. Satellite pictures analyzed by the Associated Press also show noticeably depleted reservoirs.
Israeli airstrikes on March 7 on oil depots surrounding Tehran produced heavy smoke and acid rain, with experts warning of potential contamination of the city’s water supply.
“Attacking water facilities, even one, could end up being harmful to the population in such a severe water scarcity context,” Jafarnia said.
Prior to the recent conflict, Iran was attempting to expand desalination along its southern coast, but infrastructure constraints, energy costs, and international sanctions have limited scalability.
In Kuwait, about 90% of drinking water comes from desalination, while Oman relies on the technology for roughly 86% of its water and Saudi Arabia for about 70%. The process removes salt from seawater to produce freshwater for cities, hotels, industry, and agriculture.
Disruptions to desalination plants can cascade across interconnected systems, according to David Michel, senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“It’s an asymmetrical tactic,” he said. “Iran doesn’t have the same capacity to strike back … But it does have this possibility to impose costs on the Gulf countries to push them to intervene or call for a cessation of hostilities.”
Ed Cullinane, Mideast editor at Global Water Intelligence, noted that desalination plants have multiple vulnerable stages, including intake systems, treatment facilities, and energy supplies.
“None of these assets are any more protected than any of the municipal areas that are currently being hit by ballistic missiles or drones,” Cullinane said.
The Persian Gulf produces about a third of the world’s crude exports, and fighting has already halted tanker traffic and disrupted port activity.
“Everyone thinks of Saudi Arabia and their neighbors as petrostates. But I call them saltwater kingdoms. They’re human-made fossil-fueled water superpowers,” said Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah. “It’s both a monumental achievement of the 20th century and a certain kind of vulnerability.”
Trump’s comments came as the conflict intensified, with Tehran striking a key water and electrical plant in Kuwait and an oil refinery in Israel coming under attack, while U.S. and Israeli forces launched new strikes on Iran.
A 2010 CIA analysis warned that attacks on desalination facilities could trigger national crises in several Gulf states, with prolonged outages potentially lasting months if critical equipment were destroyed. The report stated that more than 90% of the Gulf’s desalinated water comes from just 56 plants, all of which are “extremely vulnerable to sabotage or military action.”
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested in pipeline networks and storage reservoirs to cushion short-term disruptions, but smaller states such as Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait have fewer backup supplies.
Desalination has expanded due to intensifying drought caused by climate change. However, the plants are highly energy-intensive, emit carbon, and are vulnerable to extreme weather and rising seas.
During Iraq’s 1990-1991 invasion of Kuwait, Iraqi forces sabotaged power stations and desalination facilities, and released crude oil into the Persian Gulf, threatening seawater intake pipes. Full recovery took years.
In recent years, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have targeted Saudi desalination facilities.
International humanitarian law prohibits targeting civilian infrastructure indispensable to the survival of the population, including drinking water facilities.
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