UK Forecast to Face Fourth Heatwave With Temperatures Up to 35C

High pressure building near the south of the UK is creating a blockade against rain-bearing fronts, setting the stage for a possible six-day stretch of sweltering weather.

The heat is not distributed evenly. Central, southern, and eastern England are expected to bear the brunt of the intensity. In contrast, Scotland and Northern Ireland will start the week cooler, with temperatures in the high teens to mid-twenties before a slight warming trend later in the week.

Yellow Health Alerts and Met Office Thresholds

Authorities have already issued yellow heat health alerts for several regions, including London, the South East, the East Midlands, East of England, South West, and West Midlands. These alerts coincide with specific criteria used by the Met Office to define a heatwave: temperatures must meet or exceed local thresholds—ranging from 25C in the north and west to 28C in eastern England—for three consecutive days, provided it affects more than just one or two stations.

The UK Health Security Agency has issued warnings as the heat arrives during a period of extreme dryness. This is particularly critical for North Wales and the Upper Severn, both of which are already grappling with drought conditions.

Record-Low Rainfall and the 1891 Benchmark

The incoming heat arrives at a moment of severe hydrological stress. The Met Office reports that rainfall in England this month stands at 4.4mm, one of the lowest levels on record. This figure is tied with June 1925 and sits only behind February 1891, which saw 3.3mm.

The deficit is stark across the board. While some rain fell over the most recent weekend, BBC reporting notes that central, southern, and eastern England saw little to no meaningful rainfall. In Wales, the situation is so acute that July 2026 is currently the fourth driest of any month since records began.

Some specific locales are facing extreme anomalies. Wisley in Surrey, for example, recorded 40 days of no rain as of 27 July.

Wildfire Risks and Hosepipe Bans

The combination of surging temperatures and a lack of soil moisture is transforming the landscape into a tinderbox. Dry vegetation has already provided the fuel for wildfires to burn in a number of areas. To manage the dwindling water supply, hosepipe bans are currently in force for millions of households.

Looking ahead, there is no significant rain in the forecast. While a few isolated showers are expected later in the week, they are unlikely to alleviate the low soil moisture levels that are likely to become an increasing concern for England and Wales.