The prospect of a peace process regarding the war in Ukraine is closer than it has been since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022, according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who cited “considerable” security guarantees offered by the United States.
US Security Guarantees for Ukraine
“What the US has placed on the table here in Berlin in terms of legal and material guarantees is really considerable,” Merz said at a joint news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy following talks with US negotiators.
A territorial settlement remains a central issue, Merz added. “Only the Ukrainian people, the American president, the Ukrainian president, here defending his territory, can give an answer… Only Ukraine can decide about territorial concessions. No ifs or buts.”
European Concerns and Donbas Region
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas cautioned that pressuring Ukraine to cede the Donbas region in any peace agreement would leave the rest of the country vulnerable to future Russian attacks. European leaders are seeking to avoid a truce that favors Moscow and potentially compromises Ukraine and Europe’s security.
The question of territorial concessions is a major sticking point, representing a red line for Ukraine and a key demand from Russia. US negotiators reportedly urged Ukraine to relinquish territory in the east that Russia has been unable to capture by force during recent discussions.
Proposed Security Measures
European leaders outlined proposed security guarantees agreed upon with US officials, including allowing Ukraine to maintain a peacetime army of 800,000 troops, supported by a European-led military force securing Ukraine’s airspace. A US-led system would monitor ceasefires and verify compliance, and allies would commit to restoring peace, potentially through armed force, intelligence, logistical assistance, economic, and diplomatic actions, should Ukraine face future attacks.
The proposal was signed by Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and several other EU leaders, and also pledged support for Ukraine’s EU membership bid.
Shifting Ukrainian Stance on NATO
Zelenskiy indicated Ukraine might reconsider its ambition to join the NATO military alliance, a previous condition for any peace deal. However, he emphasized the continued need for robust security guarantees from the US and other Western allies to deter future Russian aggression.
Financial Support and Russian Assets
Negotiations are ongoing in Brussels to secure a substantial financial support package for Ukraine, addressing a projected shortfall in the latter half of next year. A key proposal involves utilizing frozen Russian state assets to fund a €90 billion loan to Kyiv.
Belgium is currently withholding support for the plan, citing concerns about potential retaliation from Moscow and seeking assurances that the EU would bear any associated risks. Alternative funding options, such as joint EU borrowing, have faced obstacles in the past, and the proposed reparations loan requires a majority of capitals’ agreement.
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