Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Trump administration is pressing Kyiv to agree to territorial concessions as a condition for peace. The administration has proposed recognizing Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territory, and allowing Russia to retain control of occupied areas in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, according to a draft peace agreement.
Ukraine’s Battlefield Realities
Ukraine has mounted a strong defense, but faces challenges in dislodging Russian forces, as demonstrated by its unsuccessful counteroffensive in 2023. Russia currently controls almost a fifth of Ukraine’s territory within its 1991 borders and, due to its greater resources and population, is capable of continuing the conflict for years. Overcoming these advantages would require significant time and investment that Ukraine currently lacks.
Falling Behind
As of the end of 2025, Russian military deaths are estimated at 219,000, according to Mediazona, a Russian media outlet that tracks casualties. Ukrainian military deaths are estimated at 87,045 killed in action and 85,906 missing in action, reported by the Ukrainian nongovernmental organization UA Losses.
Although Ukraine’s absolute losses are lower, the war is depleting a greater proportion of its manpower. Ukraine’s population is approximately 36 million, about 26 percent of Russia’s 140 million. Ukraine has lost between one and two percent of its men aged 25 to 54, while Russia’s losses account for 0.5 to 0.7 percent of its comparable population.
Russia is primarily fighting with contract soldiers, while Ukraine relies heavily on conscription. Recent recruitment shortfalls in Ukraine have led to increasingly forceful conscription tactics, including forcibly taking men off the streets.
As of 2025, Russia outnumbers Ukraine in major weapons systems, with a nearly five-to-one advantage in tanks, more than three times as many infantry fighting vehicles, and a significant lead in artillery and combat aircraft.
Russia’s 2024 GDP, measured by purchasing power parity, was almost $7 trillion, compared to Ukraine’s $657 billion. Russia can allocate $484 billion to defense, while Ukraine’s defense budget is approximately $197 billion, even with substantial financial assistance from Western countries.
Ukraine Outmaneuvered
Russia’s strategic objectives include control of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia, and preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. Russia formally recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent states in February 2022 and subsequently annexed those regions, along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in September 2022.
Currently, Russia controls 99 percent of Luhansk, 76 percent of Kherson, 74 percent of Zaporizhzhia, and 72 percent of Donetsk. Russian forces are advancing in Zaporizhzhia and maintaining limited operations in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.
The Ukrainian armed forces are stretched thin along the 620-mile-long line of control, with approximately 300,000 troops, or 483 troops per mile. This is less than half the density Western planners considered necessary for a successful defense during the Cold War.
Russia has more than 700,000 troops in occupied Ukraine, providing a density of at least 1,129 troops per mile. Russia’s ability to concentrate forces allows it to defend the rest of the line with fewer troops.
Despite receiving sophisticated weaponry from Western countries, Ukraine has not achieved a decisive advantage. Russia has demonstrated greater capacity to scale up drone technology, resulting in an estimated ten-to-one advantage in the number of drones deployed on the battlefield.
Recent Russian tactical innovations, such as using fiber-optic guidance systems to counter Ukrainian drone jamming and targeting Ukrainian logistics, have further weakened Ukraine’s position. Russian infantry tactics, involving small infiltration groups, have also proven effective in breaching Ukrainian lines.
Least Bad Option
While European leaders have urged Ukraine to reject territorial concessions, Russia’s limited objectives appear achievable. Russia could potentially seize the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in Donetsk within a year and a half at its current rate of advance.
Ukrainian officials acknowledge that deep strikes and attacks on Russian oil tankers will not end the war quickly. Accepting a peace deal that involves ceding territory would be painful for Ukraine, but could allow it to continue its state-building project and focus on reforms, anticorruption efforts, and strengthening its defenses. Rejecting a deal would likely prolong a costly and losing war.
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