ULA Vulcan Launch & Space Force: New Leadership Era

The US Space Force is proceeding with its diversification of launch providers, but the path forward for United Launch Alliance (ULA) is looking increasingly precarious. The upcoming February 2nd launch of USSF-87, carrying two Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program (GSSAP) satellites, isn’t just another mission; it’s a critical test for a company facing an existential crisis as SpaceX dominates the national security launch market and a key leader departs for a direct competitor.

For decades, ULA – a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing – was the reliable, if expensive, workhorse of US military space launches. However, SpaceX’s disruptive reusable rocket technology fundamentally altered the landscape. ULA’s Vulcan Centaur, designed to replace the Atlas V and Delta IV rockets, was intended to restore competitiveness. While Vulcan’s first operational launch was a success, the delays in certification and the limited launch cadence in 2024 (one launch versus a target of ten) highlight the challenges ULA faces in catching up.

The timing of Tory Bruno’s move to Blue Origin is particularly noteworthy. Blue Origin, under the leadership of Jeff Bezos, has been aggressively pursuing a foothold in the national security space sector. Analysts, like Todd Harrison of the American Enterprise Institute, suggest Blue Origin may be less interested in acquiring ULA as a whole and more focused on acquiring its expertise – specifically, Bruno’s leadership. This raises the possibility that ULA’s valuable assets, including its experienced workforce and established relationships, could be strategically dismantled and absorbed by its competitor.

The decision to not initially pursue reusability with Vulcan was a critical misstep, according to Harrison. While ULA plans to recover the engine with its SMART system, it’s a reactive measure rather than a foundational design element. This puts Vulcan at a significant cost disadvantage compared to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and potentially Blue Origin’s New Glenn, both of which are designed for reusability.

The Forward Look: The next two years will be decisive for ULA. The company needs to dramatically increase its launch cadence, successfully implement its engine recovery system, and demonstrate a clear path to profitability. However, the competitive landscape is only intensifying. Rocket Lab, Firefly, Relativity, and Stoke Space are all preparing to launch new rockets in 2024, further fragmenting the market. Blue Origin’s New Glenn, nearing certification, represents a direct threat. If ULA fails to address these challenges, Harrison’s prediction of the company ceasing to exist by the end of the decade – once considered extreme – is looking increasingly plausible. The US Space Force, while publicly maintaining its commitment to a diverse launch portfolio, will ultimately prioritize cost-effectiveness and reliability, and right now, SpaceX holds a commanding lead in both areas. The USSF-87 launch is a necessary step, but it’s only the beginning of a much larger, and potentially final, test for ULA.