Victorian Liberals to preference One Nation at state election

The Victorian Liberal Party is planning to preference One Nation ahead of Labor as a default position for the November 28 state election, a move that critics warn could alienate urban voters and legitimize far-right support.

While a final decision on preferences will be made on a seat-by-seat basis by a five-person state strategy committee after nominations close, sources indicate that One Nation will generally be favored over Labor unless exceptional circumstances or “odious” candidates are involved.

The strategy is designed to consolidate the anti-Labor vote but risks a backlash in the party’s urban and middle-suburb heartlands. Analysts suggest this could jeopardize holds on seats such as Hawthorn, Kew, and Malvern, while potentially energizing the teal movement.

Warnings of Political Collapse

Former Premier Steve Bracks condemned the potential preference deal, stating that such a move would “legitimise One Nation.” Bracks argued that the Liberal Party risks the same fate as France’s Republic Party if it continues to drift to the right.

“It will be the beginning of the end of the centre-right party in this country,” Bracks said, adding that the instinct to appease One Nation followers creates an existential threat to the party.

A Liberal Party spokesperson denied that any such decision has been made, stating that the state campaign strategy committee has not discussed One Nation preferences for the state election.

The Nepean Case Study

Current how-to-vote cards for the Nepean byelection suggest the party’s likely approach for November. The Liberals are preferencing One Nation third on the ballot, ahead of local independent Tracee Hutchison, while One Nation is directing preferences to the Liberals ahead of Hutchison.

The attempt to retain Nepean has been complicated by internal party friction. Estranged Liberal members recently paid for a local newspaper advertisement urging voters to reject the party’s candidate, Anthony Marsh.

Local branch member Richard Doery expressed discomfort with preferencing One Nation and stated he voted for Hutchison due to concerns over the pre-selection process, which he said shut out local members.

Broader Electoral Impact

The move follows a trend seen in the South Australian state election, where One Nation reduced the Liberal Party’s representation from 16 seats to five. A similar strategy is being employed in the federal byelection in Farrer, where the Liberal and National parties are preferencing One Nation ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe.

Pollster Kos Samaras believes One Nation will take seats from both major parties in November. He noted that Labor Opposition Leader Jess Wilson faces a similar dilemma: preferencing One Nation may animate her right flank, but failing to do so could collapse the conservative vote in urban Melbourne.