The Middle East is experiencing renewed geopolitical instability following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that have escalated the conflict in Iran into a protracted war with increasing civilian casualties. The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has diminished hopes for a quick de-escalation, while global markets react to the crisis.
Southeast Asia Navigates the Iran Conflict
The war in Iran has sent shockwaves through Southeast Asian nations, prompting them to secure energy reserves and organize citizen evacuations. The crisis is also revealing the geopolitical alignments of countries in the region, particularly Việt Nam and Indonesia, and their relationships with Donald Trump’s Board of Peace.
Việt Nam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed “deep concern” and called for “maximum restraint,” while Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính has formed a task force to mitigate domestic price increases and ensure energy security. However, Việt Nam’s involvement in the Board of Peace presents a contrasting picture.
The Board of Peace, presented as a humanitarian effort for Gaza’s reconstruction, functions as a private club with a $1 billion admission fee and Chairman Trump holding exclusive control over funds and policy. While several Western nations declined to participate, Hà Nội joined, securing a $30 billion deal for 90 Boeing aircraft, removal from U.S. strategic export control lists, and exemption from global tariffs—a purely transactional decision.
Indonesia initially joined the Board of Peace but is now facing significant internal opposition. President Prabowo Subianto offered to mediate in Tehran following the initial strikes. However, the continued bombing prompted intense domestic criticism, with calls for Jakarta to withdraw from the Board and cancel plans to deploy Indonesian troops to Gaza as part of a U.S.-led stabilization force.
Facing mounting public pressure, Prabowo has stated that Indonesia will withdraw from the Board if it does not benefit Palestinians or align with national interests. Foreign Minister Sugiono has confirmed that all Board discussions are currently “on hold.” Some analysts suggest Jakarta may pursue a strategy of “passive quitting.”
While Indonesia is actively grappling with its diplomatic position, Việt Nam’s approach reflects its long-standing “Bamboo Diplomacy.” History will likely view Indonesia as a nation that responded to its citizens’ demands, and Việt Nam as a nation that prioritized securing a position at the table through quiet acquiescence.
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