WHO Projects Cancer Cases to Reach 35 Million Annually by 2050

Drivers of the Projected Increase

The projected growth in cancer cases is primarily attributed to shifts in global demographics, including population growth and an aging global population. The WHO identifies a complex interplay of factors contributing to this trend:

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• Increased life expectancy
• Total population growth
• Exposure to risk factors
• Rising rates of obesity, physical inactivity, unhealthy diets, and air pollution

While the absolute number of cases is expected to grow, the WHO notes that approximately 38% to 40% of new cancer cases are linked to preventable risk factors, such as tobacco use, alcohol consumption, high body mass index, and infections like HPV, hepatitis B, and C. Global efforts have seen some progress; for instance, the prevalence of tobacco use among adults declined from 29.4% in 2005 to 19.5% in 2024.

Global Disparities in Care and Outcomes

The report emphasizes that the burden of cancer is not distributed equally, revealing persistent gaps in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Survival rates serve as a stark indicator of this inequality: in high-income countries, 87% of women diagnosed with breast cancer survive for at least five years, whereas in low-income countries, that figure drops to approximately 42%. Access to essential medicines also remains highly uneven. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that survival should not depend on a person’s birthplace or income, noting that these documented inequalities are not inevitable but the result of policy choices.

Impact on Health Systems and Patients

Beyond clinical outcomes, the report highlights the broader social and financial impact of the disease. A WHO survey found that at least 45% of people affected by cancer face financial difficulties, while more than half report mental health challenges. Caregivers also frequently experience significant burdens, including social isolation and uncompensated labor. The report suggests that control of cancer is a primary indicator of a health system’s capacity to care for its population. Currently, less than one-third of countries include cancer treatment in their universal health coverage plans.

Context for Brazil

In Brazil, the cancer landscape remains challenging. According to 2023 estimates from the National Cancer Institute (INCA), the country sees approximately 704,100 new cases of cancer annually, with an estimated 225,800 deaths per year based on 2020 data. The report underscores that health systems, including Brazil’s Unified Health System (SUS), must prepare for a significant increase in demand. Data indicates that 88% of lung cancer patients in the country begin treatment in advanced stages, which reduces the likelihood of a cure. Furthermore, 55.9% of patients must travel outside their home municipality to receive treatment, underscoring the need for improved infrastructure and equitable access as the population ages and the absolute number of cases rises.