European winter crop conditions are generally favorable as the boreal spring approaches, though recent extreme weather has created regional variations and concerns about localized production challenges. An Arctic cold spell and excessive rainfall in some areas have contrasted with precipitation deficits in others, impacting crop development across the continent.
Regional Weather Impacts
A severe cold spell swept across much of northern Europe in late January and early February. Eastern Poland, the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and western Ukraine were the most affected, experiencing temperatures as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius. Frost damage to winter crops is likely in these areas, even with some snow cover.
North-eastern Germany, Denmark, Sweden, central and western Poland, and central Ukraine experienced less extreme temperatures, though some areas recorded minus 15 degrees Celsius. The risk of significant frost damage is considered low in these regions despite relatively shallow snow cover.
Excessive rainfall in western France, the western and southern parts of Italy and Spain, and most of Portugal has replenished soil moisture and water reservoirs, though localized flooding occurred. Rainfall exceeding 250mm was recorded in some districts where the 10-year average is around 100mm. Crop damage is expected to be minimal, with an overall improvement in winter-crop yields anticipated.
Rainfall surpluses were also observed in eastern Ireland, western and south-western Europe, parts of Slovenia and Croatia, and eastern Ukraine. Conversely, Scandinavia, Finland, the northern Baltic region experienced a precipitation deficit, with rainfall totals less than half the long-term average.
Wheat Hardening and Planting Estimates
According to European Crop Monitoring Centre (MARS) model simulations, winter wheat hardening is more advanced than in 2025 and slightly above the mean. Winter wheat is fully or almost fully hardened in most of northern and eastern Europe. Frost-kill events are reportedly indicated for winter wheat in southern Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, eastern and north-western Poland and parts of Ukraine, particularly where snow cover was limited.
Rapeseed and barley are less tolerant to low temperatures and are expected to have suffered more from the cold conditions.
In France, soft winter wheat planting is expected to reach 4.59 million hectares, 2.8 percent higher than the 2025 harvest but 0.3pc below the five-year average. Winter rapeseed planting is estimated at 1.37Mha, an 8pc increase year on year and 11.6pc above the five-year average. The projected barley area is 1.26Mha, 5.3pc higher than last year.
Germany’s autumn sowing campaign resulted in 5Mha under winter grain cultivation, a 1.3pc increase compared to last year. Winter wheat cultivation rose 0.3pc to 2.9Mha, while winter barley increased 4.9pc to 1.3Mha. Winter rapeseed area is 1.1Mha, 4.9pc higher than last season.
Maghreb Region Yield Prospects
Abundant rainfall has boosted yield prospects for cereal crops in the Maghreb region of northern Africa. Initial planting in November occurred under dry conditions, leading to a 22pc decrease in wheat area and a 34pc fall in barley area in Morocco. However, significant rainfall in late December, particularly in northern and western Morocco and northern Algeria, alleviated these concerns.
The winter precipitation has eased drought conditions that have persisted for six years across key grain-producing areas. Water-storage reservoirs are now at 70pc capacity in Morocco and above 50pct in Algeria and Tunisia. The recovery in soil-moisture reserves is a positive signal for yield prospects, with an above-average harvest expected in 2026, provided no adverse weather events occur.
Current projections for the region put wheat and barley yields around 10pc and 12pc higher respectively than the average of the past five years.
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