Xi & KMT Overtures: Why a Taiwan Breakthrough is Unlikely

Cheng has called for Taiwan cross-strait engagement to transcend political party lines, urging all parties to prioritize peace over partisan competition.

Cheng framed the issue as a choice between “peace and war,” stating that cross-strait relations should not be used as a tool for electoral maneuvering. She urged all political parties in Taiwan to work together for peace.

Cheng noted that Xi Jinping has demonstrated “significant goodwill,” adding that exchanges are not limited solely to the Kuomintang and the Communist Party. She expressed hope that the Taiwan Strait would no longer be a focal point of potential conflict.

Both sides should seek a systemic solution to prevent and avoid war, Cheng said, so that the region can become a model for peaceful conflict resolution. Meanwhile, China continues to view Taiwan as a renegade province and has not ruled out the use of force for reunification.

Challenges to Taiwan Cross-Strait Engagement

Analysts suggest that while Beijing’s outreach appears broad, it is governed by tight conditions. James Chen of Tamkang University noted that Xi is open to engaging with Taiwan regardless of political affiliation, provided the political basis is accepted.

This openness extends to DPP chair Lai Ching-te, provided he accepts Beijing’s political framework. However, Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore noted that this willingness is limited in practice.

The DPP has stated it is willing to engage the CCP, but only without preconditions. Chong noted that the CCP is unlikely to accept such terms, leaving a persistent gap between the two sides.

Domestic political incentives in Taiwan also make a shift unlikely. According to Chong, opinion polls indicate limited support for high-level cross-strait engagement, leaving the DPP with little incentive to change its approach.