The risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East has increased as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict, coinciding with the arrival of additional U.S. forces in the region.
Expanded Conflict Looms
Washington has dispatched thousands of U.S. Marines to the Middle East amid the month-old war. The first of two contingents arrived on March 27 aboard an amphibious assault ship.
The Pentagon was reportedly preparing for weeks of potential ground operations in Iran, possibly involving raids by Special Operations and conventional infantry troops, according to U.S. officials. Whether President Donald Trump would approve such plans remained uncertain.
The war, launched on Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spread across the Middle East, resulting in thousands of deaths and significant disruption to global energy supplies.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 27 that the U.S. could achieve its objectives without deploying ground troops, but that deploying some forces would provide Mr. Trump with “maximum” flexibility to adjust strategy.
The Pentagon also anticipated deploying thousands of elite airborne soldiers.
Diplomatic Efforts and Escalating Strikes
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, as Pakistan is scheduled to host a meeting with the Turkish and Saudi foreign ministers on March 29 to attempt to de-escalate regional tensions. However, no immediate diplomatic breakthrough was apparent.
Israel reported striking more than 100 targets in Iran since March 27, including ballistic missile production and storage facilities, and government infrastructure sites in Tehran.
Iranian state media reported nine people killed in Borujerd and five killed in Zanjan, both in attacks on residential areas.
Israel also said it had struck more than 170 targets in Lebanon, resuming its conflict against Iran-backed Hezbollah. Three Lebanese journalists were killed in a strike on a media vehicle, according to Lebanon’s Al Manar TV, and one Lebanese soldier also died.
Iran continued attacks on Israel and several Gulf states, including an attack on an airbase in Saudi Arabia on March 27 that wounded 12 U.S. military personnel, two seriously – marking one of the most significant breaches of U.S. air defenses to date.
Drones damaged the radar system at Kuwait’s International Airport, and fires were reported near the Khalifa container port in Abu Dhabi after a missile was intercepted.
In Israel, seven people were hospitalized after an Iranian missile hit the village of Eshtaol, near Jerusalem.
Israel confirmed a missile was fired from Yemen, a threat that could potentially disrupt global shipping, already impacted by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
The Houthis have demonstrated the ability to strike targets far beyond Yemen and disrupt shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea, as they did in support of Hamas during the Gaza war.
A potential new front in the conflict could target the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the coast of Yemen, a critical chokepoint for sea traffic towards the Suez Canal.
Political and Economic Impacts
With U.S. midterm elections due in November, the increasingly unpopular conflict has weighed on Mr. Trump’s Republican Party. He has expressed a desire to end the conflict soon, while also threatening escalation.
Demonstrators participated in “No Kings” rallies across the U.S. on March 28, organized as a call to action against the war.
Mr. Rubio stated on March 27 that military operations were expected to be concluded in “weeks, not months,” and echoed Mr. Trump’s calls for European and Asian countries to help secure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. allies have been hesitant to become involved in a war that could escalate if Mr. Trump decides to deploy ground troops to open the strait.
Financial markets have reacted with alarm to signs the war may continue. The Brent crude oil benchmark is up more than 50 percent. In the U.S., diesel in California has reached a record average high, according to the American Automobile Association.
Mr. Trump has threatened to strike Iranian power stations and other energy infrastructure if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz, but he has extended a deadline he imposed for this week, giving Iran another 10 days to respond.
Israel has targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and the head of Russian nuclear corporation Rosatom, which has evacuated staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant, said the attacks threatened nuclear safety.
Mr. Pezeshkian said Iran would “retaliate strongly if our infrastructure or economic centres are targeted,” and warned regional countries not to allow “enemies” to wage war from their lands.
Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey have relayed messages between the warring sides, although Tehran has said it has not been negotiating with Washington. Sources familiar with back-channel efforts expressed doubt that direct talks would take place soon.
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