The Shifting Sands of New York City Politics

While comparing off-year elections to presidential contests presents challenges, Mamdani’s vote total – the highest for a winning mayoral candidate since the 1960s – offers compelling insights. Despite a decrease of 700,000 voters in the city compared to the previous November, Mamdani actually secured more votes than Harris in several key areas.

In Bushwick, Brooklyn, a neighborhood known for its young and progressive electorate, turnout matched or even exceeded 2024 levels, with the vast majority of those votes going to Mamdani. This is a remarkable achievement for an off-year election, reflecting the mayor-elect’s strong appeal among younger voters who opposed Trump and felt disillusioned with the Democratic Party.

However, Mamdani’s success wasn’t limited to traditionally liberal areas. He also outperformed Harris along parts of Hillside Avenue in Queens, a neighborhood he visited last November to directly engage with residents about the presidential election. The now-famous video captured voters expressing their frustration with the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel and their perception that politicians had failed to address the rising cost of living. In a heavily Bangladeshi precinct on Hillside Avenue, Mamdani garnered more raw votes than Harris, despite a 14 percent decrease in voter turnout.

Similar trends emerged in other pockets of the city with significant South Asian and Muslim populations, areas where Democratic support had waned in 2024. Despite facing a well-known and prominent Democratic opponent in Cuomo, Mamdani achieved a 24-percent improvement in Harris’ vote total in one precinct in Brooklyn’s “Little Bangladesh,” with turnout mirroring that of the previous year.

Mamdani’s emphasis on affordability, his implicit and explicit distancing from unpopular Democratic figures like Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams, and his unique position as one of the city’s first major-party Muslim mayoral candidates all contributed to his ability to reclaim lost ground for the Democratic Party.

Returning to the Queens neighborhoods profiled earlier this year, just hours before the polls closed, revealed a palpable shift in sentiment. While Mamdani isn’t universally beloved, there were clear indications that his message of affordability resonated with voters who had been wavering in their support for Democrats, and that Trump’s 2024 coalition was beginning to fracture.

Conversations with approximately two dozen voters revealed individuals who had switched their allegiance from Harris to Mamdani, and young voters who were drawn to his focus on issues directly impacting their daily lives.

“I don’t trust the buses anymore; I end up paying for a ride, and they just skip my stop,” said Diego, a young voter from Elmhurst. Another voter, who had cast a ballot for Trump in 2024 as “the lesser evil,” expressed optimism about Mamdani’s potential to bring a new direction to the city, particularly regarding his plans to improve affordability.

“The free bus idea is great,” he said. “A lot of people don’t even bother paying for the bus anyway. It’s a good incentive, and honestly, I’d rather we all paid a little more in taxes to make the MTA free.”

Beyond winning over some Trump voters, there were also signs of discontent within the Republican electorate. Several voters mentioned having voted for Trump but expressed disappointment with his administration.

A senior citizen in Jackson Heights, who had voted for Cuomo due to his emphasis on public safety, revealed that both he and his wife had supported Trump in the previous November. “He promised a lot of changes,” he said.

“But nothing’s changed,” his wife added.

Mamdani performed exceptionally well in Jackson Heights, a remarkably diverse neighborhood with large South Asian and Latino populations. In one heavily South Asian voting district, he ran 20 percentage points ahead of Kamala Harris and secured a higher overall vote count.

Outside a polling site in Jackson Heights, Abdul Aliy explained that he had intentionally left the presidential line blank in the previous election. “I couldn’t bring myself to vote for Harris, and obviously I wasn’t going to vote for Trump, so there wasn’t really an option I saw,” he said. However, he enthusiastically supported Mamdani, citing the democratic socialist’s platform as aligning with his values: “Free transit, free buses,” he stated, listing the campaign promises that resonated with him. “He has this idea of a public market that will stabilize the prices of certain goods—I like that idea.”

Rina Hart, a 32-year-old user interface designer from Elmhurst, shared that her family had traditionally voted for Cuomo. Initially, she considered doing the same in the primary, but was ultimately turned off by the former governor’s campaign and its wealthy donors. “I was concerned about Mamdani’s experience,” she admitted, “but at least he has integrity.” Her parents voted for Cuomo in the primary, while she and her brothers supported Mamdani. In the general election, the entire family rallied behind Mamdani. Hart explained that her mother, who is South Asian, had been deeply alienated by the racist videos promoted by Cuomo’s supporters.

“It’s been a really tough time to be a Democrat. And you’re kind of seeing why we didn’t win,” Hart said, reflecting on Mamdani’s rise in the wake of recent Democratic losses. “It’s been really hopeful.” She now advocates for the Democratic Party to move beyond Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who did not endorse the mayor-elect.

“That’s the only way we can get out of this MAGA cycle that we’re in,” Hart asserted.

Glacel, an Ecuadorian immigrant with 31 years of experience at an Equinox gym, chose to vote for Cuomo.

She explained that she didn’t participate in the previous presidential election due to the escalating local crime and disorder. She described the situation in Queens as the worst she had ever witnessed, blaming the decay on Democrats’ failure to address the migrant crisis. “Disgusting. Filthy. Messy,” she said. “Ecuador is better than here.”

Miguel Mendez, an Argentine immigrant and occasional Democratic voter from Elmhurst, opposed Trump in his first election and briefly considered Bernie Sanders, but ultimately supported the Republican nominee by 2024. He believed the neighborhood was deteriorating and that Democrats prioritized ideology over practical solutions.

“If it wasn’t the Salvadorans, the MS-13—it was the Tren de Aragua, or even cartels,” he said. “You can ask anyone over here where the gangs are. You can go to Roosevelt Avenue, and you’ll see what I mean. The prostitution, it’s everywhere.”

Mendez voted for Curtis Sliwa, influenced by his girlfriend’s preference against Cuomo.

Despite voting for Trump, he expressed dissatisfaction with the current administration. The second Trump term had been “a big disappointment for me, because I was begging him to talk about all the weird drones that came in New Jersey and New York,” he said. “He said that he was gonna bring that out, same thing with the Epstein names, a bunch of stuff that he’s not doing—so that makes me think that no matter what party the guy who’s in office, they just have to follow an agenda.”

Further along Roosevelt Avenue, in the heavily Latino areas of Queens that swung heavily toward Trump in 2024, the picture was mixed. Turnout in Corona, a working-class Latino neighborhood, increased significantly from the last mayoral election, but still fell short of presidential election levels. Among those who voted, data from the New York Times showed Mamdani winning the neighborhood by 11 points.

Ana, a 58-year-old Democratic voter in Corona from the Dominican Republic, voted for Cuomo after supporting Kamala Harris in the previous election. Like other voters in Corona, the problems along Roosevelt Avenue, which she also attributed to more recent immigrant arrivals, were a primary concern.

“I like the Democrats because they’re humanitarians, but as a result, they’re hurting us,” Ana said. She lamented that her Democratic representatives hadn’t done enough regarding immigration.

She still largely supported her congresswoman, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, but felt Mamdani lacked sufficient experience.

Ana was skeptical about the feasibility of Mamdani’s plans to make the city more affordable. Free buses wouldn’t alleviate her daily 4 am subway commute to a restaurant job at Google’s Manhattan campus, nor would a rent freeze cover her market-rate apartment.

“You can’t offer free things in New York,” Ana explained in Spanish. “Even looking at something here costs something.” She laughed with a sigh of resignation.

Mamdani now has four years to prove voters like her wrong.

What does Mamdani’s victory mean for the future of the Democratic Party in New York City, and can he bridge the divides that have emerged in recent years? Will his focus on affordability be enough to sustain his momentum and deliver tangible results for the city’s residents?

Frequently Asked Questions About Zohran Mamdani’s Victory