The Stakes are High: A Look at the 2026 WNBA Draft Lottery

With the league expanding to 13 teams for the 2025 season and poised to grow to 15 in 2026, the structure of the draft lottery is unique this year. Only five teams, those that did not qualify for the 2025 playoffs, are eligible to participate. This marks the final iteration of a five-team lottery; next year, with the addition of the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire, the lottery will expand to include seven teams.

The lottery process mirrors that of the NBA, utilizing a weighted system based on the previous two seasons’ win-loss records. Teams with poorer records receive a greater number of four-digit combinations, increasing their chances of securing the coveted No. 1 overall pick. The league employs a drawing of four-digit numbers, assigning these combinations to each team based on their odds. The first two picks will be assigned to the expansion teams, Toronto and Portland, respectively, offering them a crucial foundation for their inaugural seasons.

This year’s lottery is particularly intriguing given the potential for franchise-altering talent available. The draft class is projected to be exceptionally deep, and the expansion teams will have the first opportunity to build their rosters around potential stars. But which teams are positioned to land those top picks?

Team-by-Team Breakdown: Odds and Outlook

Dallas Wings (42% Chance of No. 1)

The Dallas Wings enter the lottery with the best odds, boasting a 42% chance of securing the top pick. Their 19-65 record over the past two seasons reflects a period of rebuilding, and the reward could be a transformative player. The Wings are no strangers to high draft picks, having selected Paige Bueckers first overall in 2025 and Charli Collier in 2021. While Collier’s career in the WNBA didn’t pan out as hoped, the Wings are hoping for a different outcome this time around. The Indiana Fever recently benefitted from consecutive No. 1 picks, drafting Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark, demonstrating the potential impact of landing top talent.

Minnesota Lynx (via Chicago Sky) (26.1% Chance of No. 1)

The Minnesota Lynx hold the second-best odds at 26.1%, but with a twist. They acquired this pick through a trade with the Chicago Sky, a move widely considered a significant win for the Lynx. Minnesota, with a strong 64-20 record over the last two seasons, essentially traded future assets for a prime opportunity to add a cornerstone player. The Lynx have a history of success in the draft, selecting Maya Moore and Seimone Augustus with the No. 1 overall pick in 2011 and 2006, respectively – both eventual Hall of Famers. This pick could accelerate their championship aspirations.

Seattle Storm (via Los Angeles Sparks) (16.7% Chance of No. 1)

The Seattle Storm’s path to a top pick is also circuitous, having acquired the Los Angeles Sparks’ pick through a complex three-team trade involving Jewell Loyd and Kelsey Plum. Seattle has a rich history of drafting well, securing the No. 1 pick four times, resulting in the selections of Lauren Jackson (2001), Sue Bird (2002), Jewell Loyd (2015), and Breanna Stewart (2016). These players formed the core of championship-winning teams, and the Storm will be hoping to replicate that success.

Washington Mystics (9.7% Chance of No. 1)

The Washington Mystics, with a 9.7% chance, are quietly building a promising young core. Their recent draft selections, including Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen, and Georgia Amoore, have generated excitement among fans. While they haven’t historically been frequent occupants of the top draft spot – their only No. 1 pick was Chamique Holdsclaw in 1999 – they have demonstrated a knack for identifying talent later in the draft, consistently finding impactful players in the mid-rounds.

Chicago Sky (via Connecticut Sun) (5.5% Chance of No. 1)

The Chicago Sky, despite having the lowest odds at 5.5%, remain in the lottery mix thanks to a trade with the Connecticut Sun. The Sun’s playoff success in 2024 diminished the value of the pick, but the Sky still have a chance to land a valuable addition. The Sky have never selected No. 1 overall in their history, with their highest picks being Elena Delle Donne (2013) and Sylvia Fowles (2008) at No. 2.

What impact will the expansion teams have on the draft landscape? Will the Dallas Wings capitalize on their favorable odds, or will another team leapfrog them for the top pick?

Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 WNBA Draft Lottery