The Trump administration is developing contingency plans for a potential ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, as the U.S. military increases its presence in the Caribbean and President Trump issues repeated threats against Maduro’s government.
Planning for a Post-Maduro Venezuela
The plans are being drafted and closely held within the White House, according to two senior administration officials and another source familiar with the discussions. They include multiple options for stabilizing the country should Maduro voluntarily leave as part of a negotiated departure or be forced out following direct U.S. action.
While officials publicly state the military buildup and strikes against drug boats are aimed at curbing drug flow into the U.S., internal planning signals Trump’s consideration of forcing Maduro out, a point administration officials have acknowledged privately.
Trump has not yet made a decision on how to resolve the situation, and differing views on potential military or covert action to remove Maduro exist within the administration. Despite repeated threats, including the possibility of land strikes, two senior administration officials indicated there is limited appetite for increased U.S. engagement.
Late last month, Trump spoke with Maduro, days before the U.S. designated Maduro and his allies as foreign terrorists. A senior White House official said the call wasn’t contentious, but the president reportedly issued an ultimatum, suggesting Maduro leave the country and warning of continued disruption of drug shipments.
Trump stated in a recent interview with Politico that he doesn’t want to disclose how far he’s willing to go to remove Maduro, but added, “his days are numbered.” He has refused to rule out direct participation in regime change, and the White House Council is preserving his options.
“It’s the job of the federal government to always prepare for plans A, B and C,” said a senior administration official, emphasizing the preparation reflects the seriousness of the threats made by the president.
Another source familiar with the planning stated it is “the responsibility of the US government to prepare for all scenarios around the world that may or may not unfold.” The plans are being closely held at the Homeland Security Council, led by Stephen Miller, who has worked closely with Secretary of State and acting national security adviser Marco Rubio on Venezuela efforts.
Opposition Plans
The Venezuelan opposition, led by María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, has been developing post-Maduro plans for years, focusing on security, economy, energy, infrastructure, and education, according to opposition leader David Smolansky. They have formulated “100 hour” and “100 day” plans that have been shared with parts of the Trump administration, though it is unclear how much of the opposition’s plans have been incorporated into the administration’s thinking.
The U.S. has stated that González is the “rightful president” of Venezuela, following claims he won the most votes in last year’s election. Informal conversations within the administration over the summer included discussions of Machado and Gonzalez leading the country if Maduro were removed. Machado has publicly expressed support for Trump and pledged close cooperation between Venezuela and the U.S.
However, day-after planning is now more intensive, accounting for various scenarios in which Maduro could leave power. It remains unclear how the administration intends to oust Maduro, complicating the development of detailed contingency plans.
The U.S. would need to determine the level and type of support to provide to prevent conflict and chaos, and how to influence the country’s governance after more than a decade of Maduro’s leadership. While deploying U.S. troops is unlikely, plans for economic, security, and intelligence support would be necessary, experts say.
Administration officials indicate Trump is not interested in a prolonged negotiation with Maduro, and Maduro will be given a shorter timeframe for negotiations than other world leaders. Officials also do not believe a negotiated departure is likely, given past failures.
Rubio stated last week that Maduro has broken five deals with different parties over the last decade, but that doesn’t preclude Trump from attempting to strike a deal.
In October, Trump authorized the CIA to operate inside Venezuela to disrupt illegal migrant and drug flows, but stopped short of authorizing action to remove Maduro.
Experts believe preparing for a post-Maduro scenario is a positive step, given the potential for a complicated and dangerous situation. “It is a good sign. If they intend to change the regime, which they seem to be intent on, they need to have an alternative ready to go on day one,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ defense and security department. “In 2003 in Iraq the US did not have a clear plan for the day after, and the Trump administration would not want to replicate that situation.”
Cancian also pointed out that having those plans could make it harder for Trump to step back from any regime change efforts.
Establishing a new leadership structure would require the U.S. to navigate the issue of international and domestic recognition of a new government. “When and how do you restore recognition of the Venezuelan government? If it is Maria Carina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez who take over immediately its very clear, they would be considered a legitimately elected president so the US would restore recognition from day one,” said Francisco Rodríguez, an economist who has studied Venezuela.
“But if it’s a transitional government that includes people from Chavismo, how and when do you recognize the government? Recognition will determine the lifting of sanctions and access to economic support which will be critical to stabilizing the country,” he said, referencing the political movement of former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.
While the administration remains in contact with the Venezuelan opposition, there are not regular high-level meetings with officials such as Rubio. The opposition’s governance plan is not an administration-sanctioned endeavor.
Smolansky welcomed the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts on Venezuela, but could not comment on the administration’s day-after planning. “We are aligned with the US about having a freer and safer hemisphere reducing the influence of Cuba, Iran, Russia, and China in the hemisphere where Venezuela is the hub for those external actors,” said Smolansky, a senior security and foreign affairs adviser to Gonzalez and Machado.
This story has been updated with additional information.
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