Bangladesh: Growth, Progress & A New Era

Two years after a mass uprising ended Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule, Bangladesh has elected Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in a landslide victory, signaling a potential reset in the country’s domestic and foreign policies.

Political Reset in Bangladesh

Rahman’s win follows a period of intense political turmoil, culminating in Hasina’s ouster in 2024 after a crackdown on protesters that resulted in approximately 1,400 deaths and fueled widespread opposition.

Hasina, Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister, is currently in exile in Delhi. She was convicted in absentia by the International Crimes Tribunal and sentenced to death. However, the Narendra Modi government has refused to extradite her, despite requests from the interim authorities in Bangladesh, complicating relations between the two nations.

Over-Reliance on New Delhi

The election result is widely seen as a rebuke of New Delhi’s long-standing support for Hasina’s government and its policies. During her 15 years in power, Hasina oversaw economic growth alongside increased political control, including the arrest of opponents and allegations of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

Her government also maintained a strong diplomatic alignment with India, with seven bilateral visits to New Delhi during her tenure. Critics argue this prioritized Indian security and regional interests, even while core disputes between the two countries remained unresolved.

Security cooperation was a key aspect of the relationship, with Hasina’s administration dismantling Indian insurgent networks within Bangladesh and sharing intelligence to an unprecedented degree. While this garnered support from New Delhi, it lacked public debate within Bangladesh.

Similarly, India gained transit and transshipment facilities through Bangladeshi territory, but Dhaka struggled to secure reciprocal benefits, such as resolution of the Teesta water-sharing agreement and an end to border killings by Indian forces.

Bangladesh also became increasingly reliant on Indian electricity imports and saw large infrastructure deals with Indian firms pushed through with limited transparency.

Diplomatically, Hasina’s government often refrained from publicly contradicting India on sensitive regional issues, a caution viewed by opponents as appeasement. Her exile in Delhi reinforced the perception of a close political relationship between the two leaders.

A Much-Needed Reset

With the BNP back in power, Rahman faces the challenge of managing relations with both India and Pakistan. He has signaled a shift in foreign policy, stating, “Not Dilli, not Pindi — Bangladesh before everything,” according to the BBC.

Since Hasina’s ouster, Dhaka has moved to improve relations with Islamabad, restarting direct flights after 14 years and resuming security cooperation. Trade between the two countries has increased by 27%.

Analysts note this represents a significant shift from Hasina’s policy of keeping Pakistan at arm’s length. However, India’s refusal to extradite Hasina, a political opponent of Rahman’s mother, former prime minister Khaleda Zia, remains a point of contention.

Rahman will need to navigate public opinion, which remains sensitive to perceived external interference. Anti-India sentiment persists due to years of perceived overreliance on New Delhi.

Despite the strong sentiment, a significant portion of the population recognizes the importance of trade, energy, and regional stability with India.

Old Assumptions and Path Ahead

Observers suggest the political shift in Bangladesh presents an opportunity to rethink regional dynamics, moving away from a model where South Asia is seen as the sphere of influence of any single power.

Bangladesh is likely to maintain ties with India but is expected to pursue a more balanced approach, exploring relationships with China, the United States, and normalizing relations with Pakistan.

The new leadership aims to project an image of independence, evaluating partnerships on its own terms and signaling that its foreign policy will be guided by national interest rather than external expectations. The country could emerge as a more assertive player in South Asia, balancing relations between major powers and regional players.