As Russia faces mounting troop shortages and a successful Ukrainian drone strategy, growing signals point toward a potential new military mobilization. Meanwhile, neighboring Belarus is building a new air assault brigade near Gomel, just 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, as regional tensions remain high in August 2026.
Russian authorities are making preparations that suggest President Vladimir Putin is preparing to call up additional personnel for the front lines. The maneuvers follow a series of legislative changes designed to tighten control over potential recruits and penalize those who attempt to leave the country. The state’s powerful national guard recently received expanded powers to operate during a mobilization and state of emergency, while the Duma passed a measure allowing prisoners in captivity to sign military contracts during mobilization periods.
Additional legal hurdles have been enacted to target Russians living abroad. Citizens outside the country face restrictions on obtaining new passports, accessing consular assistance, selling real estate, and receiving salaries, which are now directed to special state accounts.
International Warnings and Domestic Economic Strain
The American Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian authorities are preparing to muster extra forces, alongside preparations for a potential state of emergency and mass civil unrest.
Russia has struggled since the beginning of the year to secure enough volunteers to replace battlefield losses. At the same time, an effective Ukrainian drone campaign targeting both frontline positions and domestic Russian supply lines has increased pressure on Moscow.
The mobilization scenario seems more likely than de-escalation of the war in Ukraine. Pavel Loezin, Russian military analyst, via Het Parool
Loezin noted from Washington that mobilizing new soldiers remains ineffective without a corresponding mobilization of the economy and the declaration of a state of beleg. However, both steps carry significant political and economic risks for Russia, which could prompt leadership to pursue a half-measures approach.
Military Expansion Near the Ukrainian Border in Belarus
While Moscow weighs its domestic options, its closest regional ally is expanding its own military capabilities. Belarus is actively establishing the 37th Separate Air Assault Brigade, an elite unit operating under the country’s Special Operations Forces.
Military commanders have already recruited initial officers and formed the first battalion. Planners intend to add a second battalion, alongside combat-support units, artillery, air defense units, and specialized reconnaissance units throughout 2026.
Aliaksandr Ilyukevich, Special Operations Forces commander, stated via Zerkalo that the new unit would be stationed not far from Gomel, noting that they had already begun forming the military units and that one battalion had been formed while another battalion, combat-support units, artillery, air defense units, and reconnaissance units were being formed that year.
Aliaksandr Ilyukevich, Special Operations Forces commander, via Zerkalo
The new brigade will be based near Gomel, located just 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, with troops scheduled to move into permanent quarters by 2027. Funding for the garrison and an associated firing range runs through 2028, according to the International Strategic Action Network for Security. Belarus currently operates three similar elite formations stationed in Vitebsk, Brest, and near Minsk.
Border Defenses and Ongoing Tensions in Northern Ukraine
More than four years after the initial assault launched from Belarusian territory, Ukraine continues to heavily fortify its 1,084-kilometer border with Belarus. Once a busy crossing point, the boundary is now a mine-laden, civilian-free zone featuring anti-drone netting, razor wire, and concrete anti-tank barriers known as dragon’s teeth.
Tensions spiked recently when Ukraine demanded that Belarus shut down communication relay stations installed by Russia to extend the range of drone attacks against Ukrainian cities. According to Ukrainian officials, Belarus complied, and rhetoric between the two governments has since eased. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has maintained that he has no intention of entering the war unless his country is attacked.
Despite the current rhetorical calm, local residents near the border remain anxious. Ukrainian border guards continue to patrol the northern perimeter around the clock using armored vehicles and surveillance drones, and officials emphasize that defense expansion will remain a priority given Belarus’s close military alignment with Moscow.
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