SpaceX Shares Hit All-Time Low Before First Public Earnings Report

The ride for SpaceX investors has been brutal since the company’s June 12 listing. After an intraday peak of $225.64, the stock has surrendered nearly all its early momentum. By Monday, August 3, shares were trading roughly 20% below their $135 IPO price.

The August 6 Lockup and the Short Seller Surge

The most immediate pressure on the stock is a ticking clock. On August 6, the first insider lock-up period expires, allowing eligible insiders to sell up to 20% of their restricted holdings. This represents 911.5 million shares entering the float.

Short sellers have moved in aggressively to bet on this supply glut. According to reports, SpaceX has become the most shorted stock in the world, with some traders netting over $20 billion in unrealized profits. The sentiment is stark: why hold a stock immediately before a wave of insider selling? While some analysts suggest shorts may eventually buy back shares to close positions, the current momentum is overwhelmingly bearish.

A Three-Headed Business Model: Starlink, xAI, and Starship

Wall Street is struggling to price SpaceX because it isn’t one company—it’s three distinct businesses with wildly different balance sheets. The current valuation, sitting at about $1.4 trillion, depends on which of these the market believes in.

Business Unit	Financial Status	Key Metric/Risk
Starlink	Profitable	$11.4B revenue (2025); 10.3M subscribers
xAI	Loss-making	$6.36B operating loss (2025)
Starship	Speculative	Prerequisite for Starlink V3 deployment

Starlink is the engine, generating $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025. However, pricing pressure is emerging, with average revenue per subscriber dropping from $99 in 2023 to $66 in Q1 2026 as the company chases lower-income markets.

Then there is xAI, the AI and social media unit acquired in February 2026. This merger—the largest corporate merger in history by valuation—dragged SpaceX into a combined GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion for 2025. In Q1 2026 alone, xAI burned an estimated $2.5 billion. Investors are now questioning if this AI spend will ever translate into margins.

SpaceX Shares Fall Below IPO Price Amid Broader Tech Selloff

Starship’s Technical Dependency

The “bull case” for SpaceX relies on Starship. It isn’t just about Mars; it’s about the bottom line. Starlink V3 satellites are too large for the Falcon 9, meaning the next generation of internet growth is physically locked behind Starship’s success.

The stakes were highlighted by Flight 12 in May, where a timing difference in engine startup caused the Super Heavy booster to yaw 90 degrees, leading to the loss of the booster. The FAA identified root causes as heat effects on propulsion components and erroneous alarm settings. While SpaceX implemented four corrective actions for Flight 13, the market remains skeptical.

August 4 Earnings: The Hard Numbers vs. Sound Bites

Tomorrow’s earnings report is the first real test for the public company. Wall Street is looking for a revenue figure of $6.87 billion for Q2 2026, up from $4.7 billion in Q1. For context, the company booked $18.7 billion in revenue last year but suffered a net loss of over $4.9 billion.

There is a massive divide in how analysts view this entry point. Evercore ISI recently initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target. Conversely, the spread between the most bullish and bearish credible analysts is a staggering $738 per share—representing a $9 trillion difference in implied market cap.

Now, the market is weighing that optimism against a valuation that sits at roughly 35 times estimated 2026 sales—significantly higher than Alphabet’s 9 times sales.

The Space Force Backstop

Not everything is downward pressure. SpaceX recently secured a $1.6 billion US Space Force contract for 18 Falcon 9 launches to be completed by 2027. This reinforces a dominant market position, with Falcon 9 accounting for roughly 70% of launches outside China this year.

But a contract for routine business doesn’t solve a valuation crisis. The central question for tomorrow’s call is whether the AI segment can scale fast enough to justify a $1.4 trillion price tag before the August 6 insider selling begins.