California faces waves reaching up to 50 feet as a series of Pacific storms brings the season’s first round of rain, mountain snow, and high winds starting Friday.
A strong El Niño pattern is currently strengthening off the Pacific Ocean, contributing to unusually warm ocean waters and releasing heat that jumbles climate patterns worldwide.
While meteorologists note that strong El Niños do not automatically guarantee above-average precipitation—pointing to the dry 2015-16 winter contrasted against the wet 1997-98 season, when Sacramento recorded about 167% of its normal water-year rainfall—global models indicate a wetter-than-average winter ahead for the state.
A Pacific storm system will bring heavy low elevation rain, and gusty winds to northern California and the Pacific Northwest, as well as possible blizzard conditions to the Sierra Nevada beginning Friday. Additional storm systems are likely into next week. Visit… pic.twitter.com/6Q6LCK9EUz
“This is not your normal El Niño,” Daniel Rudnick, a physical oceanographer for the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, told SFGATE.
The current climate pattern has raised sea levels along California’s shores to unprecedented heights, and oceanographers have issued warnings regarding worsening coastal flooding and erosion. “This will be a quick-hitting storm in that it could pour in parts of California for a few hours, leading to slick roads and prompt rapid runoff,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said.
Here it comes! First significant storm of the season is approaching San Francisco this morning, with a well defined band of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds (and maybe an isolated thunderstorm) just offshore. Could pack a solid punch with squally weather later. pic.twitter.com/GM8VPhOP2H
“For areas that missed out on storms earlier this fall, it will be the first significant event of the rainy season,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said.
Rainfall Amounts Vary Across the Bay Area and North Bay
The San Francisco Bay Area expects up to 2 inches of rain, while Los Angeles is projected to receive less than an inch. Expect the initial storm to deposit 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the North Bay by Saturday afternoon, with coastal hills receiving the maximum amounts.
The Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range could see 0.75 to 1.25 inches, while the remainder of the Bay Area and the Monterey Bay region will likely receive 0.30 to 0.80 inches.
Rain will begin in the North Bay late Thursday night, bringing rain up and down the state on Friday, reaching San Francisco, Oakland, and the South Bay around noon, according to KTVU. A meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office said that widespread flooding is not anticipated because the system is fast-moving.
“We are not expecting widespread flooding as we are not seeing this system stalling over any given region, so it should be mostly beneficial,” the meteorologist said.
According to Chad Hecht, a researcher at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes located at the University of California, San Diego, numerous specifics still require clarification. Former KCRA Chief Meteorologist Mark Finan said that the pattern involves three main waves of storms arriving Friday, Sunday night into Monday, and another round expected Wednesday.
A second weather system is scheduled to arrive on Sunday, with a third potential storm tracking toward the region by Wednesday, November 18, 2026. In the Sierra Nevada, the initial storm is expected to drop heavy, wet snow, with up to a foot at Tahoe area summits on Friday evening and night, and up to 20 inches along the crest west of the lake. Ridgetop winds in the Sierra could reach 70 to 90 mph.
Life-Threatening Coastal Flooding and Surf Conditions Threaten Pacific Coast
Along the Pacific coast, the National Weather Service issued warnings for life-threatening conditions.
Fall weather in this week's forecast planner AKA swinging from warm temps + clear skies to cool, rainy, breezy WX. We're expecting 2 storm systems with a period of mostly dry WX in-between them this weekend into next week, but we're still nailing down exact timing & rain amounts. pic.twitter.com/Nwrf3cmZsN
Coastal flood advisories are in effect for low-lying areas around San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays, where water levels could reach 1.5 feet above normal during peak high tides on Friday. Officials advised mariners to stay in port and urged the public to avoid beaches.
National Weather Service meteorologist Brian Garcia advised the public to log into their computers and stay away from the water entirely, while UC Santa Cruz coastal scientist Gary Griggs said that giant waves hitting during high tide could exacerbate coastal impacts.
Swain, speaking during a YouTube office hours session, warned that a potential storm surge of about a foot could make waves break higher and farther inland, causing more erosion than usual.
“Mariners are urged to remain in port during this period of extremely dangerous weather, secure vessels and continue to monitor forecasts for updates,” said the National Weather Service in Medford, Oregon.
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