Chinese Researchers Propose Nuclear Strategy for Doomsday Asteroids

Chinese Researchers Propose Nuclear Strategy for Doomsday Asteroids

The research comes from authors affiliated with the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology in Beijing. The study, titled ‘Analysis of Defense Technology for Large-Sized Near-Earth Asteroids’, examines options for extreme circumstances where dangerous asteroids head toward Earth with short warning times.

According to the authors, mitigating the risk of near-Earth asteroid impacts is critical to global security and human survival, noting that large near-Earth asteroids with short warning times pose a devastating threat. While there are no known asteroids currently posing a threat to Earth in the future, researchers emphasize that an unknown rock could be discovered at any time, potentially leaving humanity with only days or weeks to respond.

Simulations and Technical Specifications of the Nuclear Strategy

To test their theory, the research team conducted computer simulations involving hypothetical asteroids approaching Earth at a speed of six miles per second. The simulations tested how different defense measures would perform against asteroids of varying sizes, speeds, and trajectories.

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The proposed method requires sending a spacecraft to the asteroid to deploy a penetration device that excavates a deep crater. A nuclear device is then guided into the crater for detonation, allowing for a more precise point of impact and better energy transfer than surface-level blasts.

Computer simulations yielded specific measurements regarding explosive force and asteroid destruction:

• A 300-kiloton nuclear explosion—equivalent to around 20 Hiroshima bombs—could completely destroy a 164-foot (50-meter) asteroid.
• An explosion equivalent to 200 Hiroshima bombs could completely destroy an asteroid approximately 100 meters across.
• A 3-megaton blast could destroy a nearly 1,000-meter asteroid.
• Installing the nuclear payload approximately 100 meters deep tripled the change in the rock’s velocity compared to shallower placement, while burying a bomb 30 meters deep similarly tripled effectiveness in separate simulations.

This study can provide references for the engineering design of defense against large near-Earth asteroids, wrote the researchers, adding that the work holds profound strategic significance for enhancing humanity’s capability to respond to asteroid impact threats.

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Context of Planetary Defense and Limitations

Traditional planetary defense countermeasures face severe time constraints. For instance, NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully used a spacecraft to knock the asteroid Dimorphos off course on September 26, 2022. However, scientists note that traditional kinetic impactors or deflection methods may fail or lack sufficient warning time when dealing with large objects or short notice.

NASA scientists have previously warned that up to 15,000 several-hundred-foot-wide asteroids remain undetected while possessing enough scale to destroy a city. Furthermore, recent near-misses include a bus-sized space rock that came within 56,000 miles of Earth in May, as reported by Nypost.

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Despite the potential viability of the nuclear strategy, the approach presents significant operational hurdles. Real-world success requires detecting a threat early enough to launch and execute the mission before impact, as well as engineering a specialized vehicle capable of carrying both a heavy drilling apparatus and a nuclear device deep into space.

The discussion of nuclear options follows other recent near-Earth object alerts. This past fall, scientists evaluated potential responses to 2024 YR4, a space rock that sparked worldwide concern over a potential strike on December 23, 2032. NASA’s Center for Near Earth Objects subsequently downgraded the asteroid’s Earth-impact probability to a negligible 0.00081%, though it raised the probability of a lunar impact on that date to over 4%.