El Niño Alert: Asia’s Crops Face Severe Heat and Drought

Forecasts indicate the strongest El Nino in a decade will bring hotter, drier weather to Asia in the second half of 2026, threatening global food supplies as farmers face rising fuel costs and fertiliser shortages linked to the war in Iran.

Japan’s weather bureau reports a 70% chance of El Nino emerging during the northern hemisphere summer. Climate officials in China warn the pattern could persist until the end of the year, while India expects below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years.

Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at Meteomatics, noted that heat and dryness are already appearing in India and Australia. He compared the current signals to the severe El Nino event of 2015 to 2016, which caused widespread drought and reduced grain and oilseed output across Asia.

Regional Agricultural Impacts

In Australia, farmers in New South Wales and Queensland have already scaled back the planting of canola and wheat due to months of low rainfall and shortages of fuel and fertiliser.

Dry conditions in Southeast Asia are threatening rice and palm oil production. M.R. Chandran, an industry official in Kuala Lumpur, stated that while a mild episode causes limited disruption, a strong El Nino could lead to production declines of 5% to 12%.

India’s summer crops, including soybeans, cotton, and rice, may see curb yields if monsoon rains from June to September remain below normal. Hyde expects rain to reach only 70% to 90% of the average, with a risk of severe drought in August and September.

In China, a stronger El Nino increases the risk of flooding in southern regions, which Darin Friedrichs of Sitonia Consulting says could harm vegetable and rice production.

Global Supply Chain and Cost Pressures

While Asia faces dryness, the phenomenon often brings heavier rain to the United States and Europe. This could disrupt the US corn and soybean harvest or degrade the quality of oilseeds.

In Europe, senior grain analyst Benoit Fayaud noted that heavy summer rain could benefit corn, though European wheat harvests typically begin before El Nino arrives.

Farmers are also struggling with the cost of petrochemical-based fertilisers. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up prices.

Vitor Pistoia of Rabobank warns this creates a “vicious cycle,” as farmers may avoid applying expensive fertilisers to crops already expected to perform poorly due to low rainfall.