Europe’s Choke Points: Trade, Risk & Strait Security

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli air strikes and subsequent attacks on commercial ships has triggered a sharp energy price shock across Europe and raised concerns about fertilizer and goods shortages. The disruption to one of the world’s most critical shipping routes highlights Europe’s vulnerability to events occurring thousands of kilometers away.

Europe’s maritime choke points

The European Union operates the world’s largest fleet, accounting for more than one-third of global shipping tonnage. EU ports handle more than 3.4 billion tonnes of goods every year – roughly 74 per cent of everything that enters or leaves the bloc. Almost all of that trade flows, at some point, through a handful of strategic straits, making Europe susceptible to disruptions caused by conflict, accident, or political pressure.

The Strait of Hormuz

Widely regarded as the world’s most critical energy choke point, Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Prior to the current crisis, around 20 million barrels of oil passed through it every day – roughly 25 per cent of all seaborne oil trade. It is also the exit route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, which supplies around 13 per cent of European LNG imports.

The Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb strait

The Suez Canal, which saves ships a 10,000-kilometre detour around Africa, demonstrated its fragility in March 2021 when the container ship Ever Given ran aground. For six days, an estimated $10 billion (€8.6 billion) in trade was frozen each day, as hundreds of vessels were left waiting.

The canal itself depends on traffic passing safely through Bab el-Mandeb, the “Gate of Tears” at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, which controls around 12% of total global seaborne trade.

Between 2023-2025, Houthi rebels in Yemen launched attacks on commercial vessels, targeting ships with perceived links to Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom. This led major shipping firms to suspend Red Sea transits, container traffic through Suez to fall sharply, and freight rates on the Shanghai-Rotterdam route to increase several-fold. Delivery times for European importers lengthened by 10-14 days before a ceasefire allowed a partial return to normal.

The Strait of Malacca

The Strait of Malacca is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, carrying trade that represents around a third of global GDP, including a large share of EU trade. At its narrowest point the strait is less than three kilometres wide, making it prone to congestion and piracy.

The Dover Strait

The narrow channel between Britain and France, linking Atlantic ports to those of the North Sea, carries around 15% of global maritime trade by value. The Dover Strait became a symbol of post-Brexit disruption, when new customs checks created queues, delays and higher costs for UK-EU goods traffic.

The Strait of Gibraltar

At the western entrance to the Mediterranean, the Strait of Gibraltar is witnessing a shift in regional power. Morocco’s Tanger Med port has overtaken its Spanish rivals to become the leading hub for container transshipment at Europe’s southern gateway. This raises strategic questions about Europe’s growing reliance on non-EU infrastructure, as well as environmental concerns.

The Bosphorus

In the east, Turkey’s Bosphorus – narrowing to just 700 metres at its tightest point – is the only sea outlet from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. It carries Ukrainian grain heading west and industrial goods heading east. Its stability has been shaken by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and uncertainty over the strait’s long-term reliability remains.

Why there is no easy way round

When these choke points are disrupted, Europe’s options are limited. An alternative is the route around the Cape of Good Hope, but this can add up to two weeks to a voyage, increasing freight rates and carbon emissions. The Northern Sea Route through the Arctic could cut distances, but is controlled by Russia and lacks the necessary infrastructure. The Middle Corridor, a rail and ferry route via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, bypasses both Russia and the Middle East, but currently handles only a small fraction of the trade volume of the main Asia-Europe routes.

For oil supply, Europe can partially bypass Hormuz using pipelines, plus more seaborne imports from other regions, but each option has limits on capacity, cost, or security. Air freight is an option for some goods, but is significantly more expensive and has limited capacity.

What Europe is doing

The European Commission has presented the EU Ports Strategy and the EU Industrial Maritime Strategy, highlighting maritime choke points and Arctic routes as strategic priorities for European supply chain resilience. These strategies aim to strengthen port security, accelerate the energy transition, invest in shipbuilding, and develop rules on foreign investment in European port infrastructure.

With no credible alternative to the existing choke points likely to emerge in the near future, Europe’s economic security will continue to be vulnerable to regional conflicts and crises. Experts argue for a shift towards domestic renewable energy, more diversified trade routes and supply chains, and an acknowledgement that the era of frictionless global maritime trade may not last.