Understanding the Gains and Losses of the October 10th Agreement

Israel’s primary immediate gain from the ceasefire was the return of prisoners of war, a significant domestic political win. Cobban highlighted how this facilitated a public relations effort by Israel, aided by European governments eager to appear to be “rehabilitating” Israel despite its continued violations of international law. This “rehabilitation,” she warned, is likely to manifest through continued arms sales and political cooperation, including participation in events like Eurovision.

However, the Palestinian resistance and the people of Gaza also achieved crucial outcomes. “They won the end of the bombardment,” Cobban stated, “They won the ability to return to their homes, to rebuild, to bring back some prisoners, and to reengage international aid agencies.” These gains, while vulnerable, represented a tangible reprieve from the devastation. The ceasefire, she characterized, was a “gamble worth taking,” offering a chance to rebuild even amidst the ruins. “It’s so wonderful to be able to return to your neighborhood,” she observed, “but then you get there and the place is completely leveled to the ground…”

A Colonial Framework and Palestinian Strategy

Cobban dismantled the notion of the ceasefire as a peace plan, tracing its origins to a 20-point plan unveiled by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on September 29. She described this plan as a “colonial diktat,” emphasizing that Hamas negotiators strategically engaged with only six points beneficial to Palestinian interests, remaining silent on the rest. This silence, she explained, was a deliberate tactic to maintain a degree of stability while rejecting the legitimacy of an imposed colonial framework. The ceasefire, in her view, served as a “holding action for the resistance,” not a surrender.

Did You Know?: The term “colonial diktat” refers to a policy imposed by a colonial power without the consent of the governed, highlighting the power imbalance inherent in the negotiations.

The Shifting Sands of Regional Power

The discussion also addressed the complex role of Arab regimes. Cobban, quoting veteran diplomat Chas Freeman, described their behavior as “the eunuch level of subservience” to U.S. interests. She detailed how leaders like Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Qatar’s leadership are structurally dependent on U.S. support, influencing their positions on the conflict. However, Cobban also pointed to emerging shifts in the geopolitical landscape, noting the rising influence of China, the BRICS alliance, and regional partners like Pakistan as potential counterweights to U.S. dominance in the region. This evolving dynamic, she argued, could eventually limit Washington’s ability to enforce its agenda in the Middle East.

The West Bank: A Parallel Struggle

Cobban emphasized the critical need to refocus attention on the West Bank, where Israeli settlers, emboldened by far-right ministers like Itamar Ben-Gvir, are intensifying land theft and violence against Palestinians. She urged international movements to recognize the interconnectedness of the struggles in Gaza and the West Bank, viewing them as part of a single, ongoing fight against occupation. The ceasefire, she cautioned, is merely “the first of a thousand steps” toward achieving lasting justice and enforcing international law, including rulings from the International Court of Justice declaring Israel’s occupation illegal.

Pro Tip: Supporting organizations documenting human rights violations in both Gaza and the West Bank, such as the Hind Rajab Foundation and the Global Sumud Flotilla, is a crucial step in amplifying Palestinian voices and holding perpetrators accountable.

The U.S. Role and the Illusion of Guarantees

Cobban drew on historical precedent to underscore the unreliability of U.S. guarantees, recalling the 1982 Lebanon agreement and the subsequent Sabra and Shatila massacres. “The word of the United States on one of these plans is worth nothing,” she asserted. This historical context explains why Hamas would not agree to unconditional disarmament, insisting on it only within the framework of achieving an independent Palestinian state, mirroring the path taken by other anti-colonial movements.

Inside Israel: A Culture of Dehumanization

Regarding the political climate within Israel, Cobban described the mood as “quite scary,” noting that the release of prisoners of war had temporarily restrained military aggression. With that pretext removed, she warned that those with genocidal tendencies would feel “even more empowered.” She cited instances of Israeli soldiers deliberately destroying civilian infrastructure, such as a wastewater treatment plant, as evidence of a deeply ingrained culture of dehumanization.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Gaza Ceasefire

• What is the significance of the October 10th ceasefire agreement?

  The October 10th ceasefire represents a temporary pause in hostilities, offering a crucial opportunity for humanitarian aid and rebuilding, but remains fragile and does not address the root causes of the conflict.

• How did Hamas navigate the proposed peace plan from Trump and Netanyahu?

  Hamas strategically engaged with only those aspects of the plan that served Palestinian interests, effectively denying legitimacy to the broader, imposed colonial framework.

• What is the role of the United States in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, according to Cobban?

  Cobban argues that U.S. guarantees are historically unreliable, citing past instances where promises of protection for Palestinians were broken, and that the U.S. consistently prioritizes Israeli interests.

• What is the situation in the West Bank amidst the Gaza ceasefire?

  The West Bank continues to experience escalating violence and land theft by Israeli settlers, requiring sustained international attention and advocacy.

• What resources are available to learn more about Hamas and the Palestinian resistance?

  Just World Educational’s “Understanding Hamas” project, including webinars and a published book, provides a nuanced and informed perspective on the movement and its context.