Indonesia’s rainy season is expected to persist into the first ten days of February, influenced by ongoing Asian monsoon activity and the Cross-Equatorial Northerly Surge (CENS), according to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).
Indonesia’s Rainy Season to Continue
The BMKG stated in its Weekly Weather Outlook for January 30–February 5, 2026, that these two weather systems have contributed to widespread heavy rainfall across parts of Indonesia in recent days and are expected to remain active.
The Asian monsoon is characterized by stronger winds over the South China Sea. The Cross-Equatorial Northerly Surge (CENS) is driven by cold air masses from the Asian continent crossing the equator, identified through increased wind speeds in the Karimata Strait.
BMKG noted that CENS typically brings early-morning rainfall to Jakarta and surrounding areas.
Strong westerly winds have also been observed over western and southern Indonesia, increasing atmospheric convergence and enhancing the formation of rain-bearing convective clouds over regions including West Sumatra, southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Central and South Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, the Papua Highlands, and South Papua.
The agency warned of the potential development of a low-pressure system over the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia, which could intensify atmospheric convergence over southern Indonesia and increase the risk of heavy rainfall.
“Given the significant weather potential, BMKG urges the public to remain vigilant and take preventive measures to protect themselves, their families, and their surroundings from extreme weather that could trigger hydrometeorological disasters such as floods, flash floods, and landslides,” the agency said.
Early Warning Alerts
BMKG issued the following early warnings for the coming week:
- Heavy to very heavy rain: West Sumatra, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Special Region of Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara
- Strong winds: East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku
February 2 – 5
- Heavy to very heavy rain: Bangka Belitung, Central Java, East Java
- Strong winds: East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku
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