IMD Forecasts Heavy Rain Across North India After Severe Monsoon Deficit

Indian Meteorological Department Reports a 26 Percent Rainfall Deficit

Monsoon Deficit and the July Dry Spell

The current surge in rainfall follows a period of significant concern for the nation’s agricultural and water security. According to data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the country recorded a 26 percent deficit in rainfall during the season leading up to mid-July. While the month began with steady precipitation, a sudden break in activity after July 10 caused moisture levels to plummet, leaving people in states including Uttar Pradesh, Delhi-NCR, Haryana, and Rajasthan waiting for relief.

The statistical shortfall was stark: by mid-July, the country had received 227.0 millimeters of rain, significantly below the expected 298.2 millimeters. The impact was unevenly distributed, with 21 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions recording below-average rainfall. North-West India faced a 19 percent decline, with recorded rainfall at 137 millimeters against an expected 168 millimeters. Other regions, such as South India, saw averages of 190 millimeters compared to an expected 255.3 millimeters.

Meteorologists attributed this mid-month stagnation to a specific atmospheric condition. The IMD reported that an anticyclonic wind field over Punjab and Western Rajasthan effectively acted as a barrier, preventing moisture-laden winds from the sea from reaching the northern plains and mountainous regions. This resulted in prolonged, humid heat waves that made life difficult for residents across the country. In states like Uttar Pradesh, Delhi-NCR, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Bihar, rainfall during this period remained minimal, with the nation recording 51 percent less rain than normal in those specific areas.

Punjab and Western Rajasthan Anticyclonic Fields Blocked Moisture

North India Weather Alerts and Temperature Shifts

By July 20, the situation shifted as satellite imagery confirmed that clouds now blanket the majority of the country. A long band of clouds stretching from Punjab to Northeast India signals a period of sustained, heavy rainfall. Notably, severe weather is expected in Jammu and Kashmir, where analysts identified extremely cold clouds with temperatures as low as minus 80 degrees Celsius, a signature of intense storm activity and torrential rain.

The capital region is already experiencing the effects of this shift. After a weekend marked by oppressive humidity and temperatures—where residents faced slow wind speeds of 5 kilometers per hour—the IMD issued a yellow alert for Delhi-NCR through Wednesday. Temperatures in the capital are expected to drop by approximately 6 degrees Celsius, providing a reprieve from the 32 to 34-degree maximum and 25 to 27-degree minimum temperatures projected for Monday.

Delhi-NCR Residents Receive Yellow Alert for Heavy Rainfall

Impact Across Uttar Pradesh Districts

In Uttar Pradesh, the return of the monsoon has brought a mix of relief and logistical challenges. Following scattered showers, the state has entered a phase of torrential rain, which has led to waterlogged streets and overflowing drainage systems in several districts. The IMD has issued tiered warnings for the region:

• Orange Alert: Issued for Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Moradabad, Jyotiba Phule Nagar, Rampur, Sambhal, Badaun, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Kheri, Shahjahanpur, Sitapur, Bahraich, Shravasti, Barabanki, Balrampur, Gonda, Basti, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Ambedkar Nagar, Sultanpur, and Ayodhya. Authorities warn of heavy rain and lightning risks in these areas.
• Yellow Alert: Issued for Sonbhadra, Mirzapur, Prayagraj, Jaunpur, Sant Ravidas Nagar, Varanasi, Ghazipur, Ballia, Mau, Azamgarh, Deoria, Pratapgarh, Raebareli, Lucknow, Unnao, Kanpur, Kanpur Dehat, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Kannauj, Hardoi, Farrukhabad, Kanshiram Nagar, Bulandshahr, Hapur, Meerut, Baghpat, and Shamli, indicating continued heavy rainfall and potential lightning.

Lucknow Maximum Temperatures Drop to 31.4 Degrees Celsius

In Lucknow, the shift in weather was evident by Saturday, when the maximum temperature reached 31.4 degrees Celsius—about 2.5 degrees below normal—while the minimum temperature was 27.9 degrees Celsius, which was 1.8 degrees higher than normal. Humidity levels in the city reached a maximum of 92 percent and a minimum of 74 percent. Residents in these regions are advised to remain cautious, as the IMD expects this pattern of heavy, disruptive rainfall to persist across the state for several days.

Sources: ndtv.in, Webdunia.