A war in the Middle East has significantly disrupted air travel, forcing airlines to reroute flights and creating a large void in typically busy airspace. The ongoing conflict, involving strikes between Israel and the US against Iran and subsequent missile and drone attacks from Tehran, has prompted widespread diversions to avoid potential catastrophe.
How Did the Airspace Close?
The world’s airspace is divided into Flight Information Regions (FIRs), generally following international borders. Governments are responsible for providing air traffic services within these regions. In situations of regional conflict, authorities issue a Notice to Air Missions (Notam) to alert aircraft to restrictions or closures. Multiple FIRs in the Middle East have been closed since bombing began, creating a 2.8m sq km (1.08m sq mile) gap.
Airline decisions are also influenced by warnings from their registering countries (like the UK for British Airways or India for Air India) and insurance coverage for flights over risky areas. Dispatch teams continuously monitor events to ensure safe routes.
“In the end, the decision about whether a piece of airspace is safe to fly your passengers through it is that of the airline and the airline’s dispatchers, depending on the level of risk,” says aviation expert David Learmount. This explains the limited air traffic over Lebanon, which is experiencing Israeli attacks. While Lebanon’s FIR isn’t closed, most airlines are avoiding the area.
What Have Airlines Done?
Major Middle Eastern routes connecting Europe, Africa, and Asia have seen significant changes. Airlines began rerouting immediately when bombing started, utilizing pre-planned contingency routes for avoiding conflict zones. Many of these routes were already programmed into aircraft navigation systems, according to reports of years of contingency planning.
Two primary rerouting options have emerged: one north into the Caucasus, below Ukraine’s closed airspace, and another south through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, which are experiencing intermittent attacks. These corridors are absorbing displaced traffic, leading to delays and cancellations.
“This problem is not getting better, it’s getting worse,” said Learmount. “You can see the patterns of the way aircraft are going. The northern one is a bottleneck of narrow airspace that routes below southern Russia and Ukraine, and it really entails going through Afghanistan, which is not a very friendly place. Or there is the option of going through southern Saudi Arabia. The airlines don’t really have a choice.”
Why Are Some Flights Operating?
Hub airports in the region, including Dubai, have been largely affected, impacting carriers like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways. However, limited operations have resumed for repatriation and essential transit, often with special permission. This explains occasional flights seen in seemingly closed airspace on flight tracking websites. Oman’s airspace remains open despite attacks.
What is the Impact?
The disruptions are causing delays, cancellations, and significant financial costs.
Steve Fox, director of operations control at Nats, noted the “huge black hole” in Middle Eastern airspace is creating longer routings, flight times, and fuel costs. Airline stocks have also experienced a sell-off. The situation is expected to remain uncertain for the foreseeable future, according to Fox.
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