Iran Crisis: Is Europe Watching From the Sidelines?

Ongoing tensions in Iran were a central topic at this year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC), following the regime’s crackdown on protesters and continued pressure from the United States to curtail its nuclear program.

Iran Regime Change Discussed at Munich Security Conference

As Iran’s hardline rulers maintain power after the largest anti-regime protests in decades, Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Iranian king and a political activist-in-exile, actively advocated for regime change at the conference.

Pahlavi addressed a panel about Iran’s future on Friday and held a press conference on Saturday, criticizing the Iranian regime’s suppression of human rights, particularly the brutal crackdown on citizens during January’s anti-regime protests, which rights groups estimate resulted in thousands of deaths.

Pahlavi, who many Iranians believe could unite the nation against 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s government, presented a roadmap at the MSC for Iran’s political future and a “transitional government.”

Following Pahlavi’s call to action, approximately 250,000 people participated in a demonstration in Munich on Saturday against the Iranian regime and in support of the Pahlavi-led opposition.

“I am here to guarantee a transition to a secular democratic future,” he said during the rally. “I am committed to be the leader of transition for you so we can one day have the final opportunity to decide the fate of our country through a democratic, transparent process to the ballot box.”

However, the establishment of any transitional government is contingent upon the collapse of the current regime. Despite facing unprecedented challenges, the regime has reportedly intensified its domestic oppression.

US Military Action Considered

The Iranian opposition-in-exile anticipates potential US military strikes that could lead to the dismantling of the current regime. During the anti-regime protests, US President Donald Trump stated that help was on the way for Iranians.

Currently, the Trump administration is engaged in negotiations with Tehran regarding its nuclear program, a process analysts believe is unlikely to yield a definitive outcome.

“I think a lot of Iranians inside and outside hope that an intervention that will neutralize the regime’s instrument of repression will finally give us an opportunity for a final solution,” Pahlavi said at an MSC panel, advocating for a “humanitarian intervention” to prevent further loss of life.

After initially retracting threats of military intervention following protest deaths, Trump has renewed threats of force if the Iranian regime does not negotiate a new “deal” on its nuclear program. Last week, the US sent a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Arabian Sea, with Trump warning that it would be a “very bad day” for Iran if a deal is not reached.

Pahlavi acknowledged that the US president needs to give diplomacy a chance before considering a military solution, while maintaining that President Trump remains mindful of the Iranian people’s belief in his earlier promise of support.

Karim Sadjadpour, a policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, cautioned that regime change is a complex undertaking. “Everybody in Washington, including President Trump, thinks that if they could push a button and get rid of the Iranian regime, they absolutely would,” he said, adding that the Trump administration may be wary of repercussions similar to those seen after US military intervention in Iraq and Libya.

However, Sadjadpour did not rule out the possibility of a US strike on Iran. “In 2018, Trump left the [2015] nuclear deal. In 2020, he assassinated Qassem Soleimani [military leader and Khamenei’s close aide]. Last summer, he dropped 14 bunker-busters on Iran’s nuclear facilities,” Sadjadpour said, adding that he believes the chances of Trump striking Iran are higher than reaching a nuclear deal.

Europe Favors Diplomacy

While the US applies pressure on the Iranian regime with the threat of force, the EU has urged de-escalation, favoring sanctions and support for civil society within Iran. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated in January that the Iranian people “don’t want regime change forced by external powers” and warned of unforeseen consequences.

Kallas emphasized the importance of internal alternatives for establishing a functioning state.

For Pahlavi, Europe’s reluctance to endorse US military action could be interpreted as inaction in forcing regime change. While Europe plays a significant role in sanctioning Iran over its nuclear program, its stance should the US strike remains unclear, with officials continuing to prioritize diplomacy.

In 2015, major European powers helped broker the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. Trump labeled the JCPOA “horrible” and “one sided” and withdrew the US from the deal in 2018, to the dismay of Washington’s European partners.

As Trump pursues a new nuclear deal with Iran, with a military option on the table, European nations may be forced to wait and see. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola stated at the MSC that the starting point must be the Iranian people demanding freedom, and Europe must align its actions accordingly.

She highlighted the EU’s decision to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization as a turning point, asserting that the time for “routine diplomacy” is over. “Europe must send a clear signal to those risking their lives in protest: We stand with you,” she stressed.

Last year, Europe reimposed UN sanctions on Iran, citing Tehran’s violations of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement, adding to the financial pressure on the regime. The January protests were partly fueled by economic grievances, including high unemployment and inflation.

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has suggested that business as usual with Iran may no longer be possible. Following the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in July 2025, Tehran stopped cooperating with the IAEA.

“This cannot go on forever. There is a political situation here … on our part, we have been making some progress, but these [nuclear] facilities are there, nuclear material is there — notably highly enriched uranium, which we must continue to monitor. So everything goes in parallel,” Grossi underlined.

Another round of nuclear talks between US and Iranian representatives is scheduled for next week in Geneva, with Oman serving as mediator.