Recent protests in Iran have revealed a shift in dynamics compared to the 2022 demonstrations sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, with a growing focus on opposition to the Islamic regime and increased support for Reza Pahlavi, son of the country’s former monarch.
Shift in Protest Dynamics
As nightly protests unfolded in Karaj, a city 30 miles west of Tehran, familiar chants of “death to the dictator” and “death to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei” were heard. However, the rallying cry of “woman, life, freedom” – central to the 2022 demonstrations following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was detained for allegedly violating Islamic dress codes – found limited support.
“That was the moment I realised: ‘OK, this is slightly different than what happened in 2022,” said Parisa, an Iranian filmmaker based in France who was visiting relatives when the recent demonstrations began.
The earlier protests had led to concessions from authorities, including the right not to wear Islamic head coverings, and were largely driven by the middle class and progressive groups. The current unrest, however, is described as “very masculinist at heart” and fueled by broader social rebellion against rising poverty.
Rise of Reza Pahlavi
A key beneficiary of this shift appears to be Reza Pahlavi, a son of the country’s former pro-western monarch. Many Iranians in their teens and 20s are reportedly coalescing around him in their desire to overthrow the current theocratic regime.
At least 30,000 people are believed to have been killed by security forces in response to demonstrations that began in late December, triggered by a sharp fall in the value of the Iranian rial.
The scale of the dissent and the violent response pose an existential threat to the Islamic regime, analysts say.
Parisa, a veteran of previous anti-regime protests, including those following the disputed 2009 presidential election, noted a new element in the chanted slogans: support for Pahlavi and his father, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s last shah, who fled the country in 1979 during the Islamic revolution.
“Some were shouting: ‘javid shah’ (long live the Shah), ‘this is our last fight’ ‘Pahlavi is going to come back’,” she said. “Unfortunately, these chants were quite well supported.”
This sentiment is also reflected among younger generations who do not recall the revolutionary fervor that toppled the shah, who faced criticism for suppressing dissent.
“My cousin and his girlfriend, who are 25 and 26, were participating in the protests every night and until two years ago, these guys were leftists,” said Parisa. “Now they are completely pro-Pahlavi because they see Reza Pahlavi as the only leader who can bring people together and do something.”
“They kept saying that he has said he doesn’t want to be king, that he just wants to lead the transition. This is something you can see mainly within the younger generation in Iran, like generation Z.”
Pahlavi’s Position and Criticism
Pahlavi, who has lived in exile in the US since before the revolution, predicted at a news conference in Washington this month that the Islamic regime would collapse and proclaimed himself “uniquely positioned” to lead a transition government. He remained ambiguous when asked about potentially returning as monarch, stating that a referendum would determine the form of a new government.
“If it’s a republic, the president will be elected. If it’s a monarchy, the prime minister will be elected at that time,” he said. “My role in all this is to lead this transition, help with the transitional structure.”
His position draws parallels to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the spiritual leader of the 1979 revolution, who initially vowed to retire before ultimately leading a repressive Islamic theocracy.
Pahlavi has faced criticism for urging protesters to take to the streets, resulting in a crackdown by security forces, and for justifying the resulting casualties as inevitable in a “war.” He has also been criticized for deleting previous social media posts supporting the “woman, life, freedom” movement during the latest unrest, a move some have labeled as opportunistic.
His emergence as a potential leader is also aided by the imprisonment of prominent domestic opposition figures, including Nobel peace prize laureate Narges Mohammadi and reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have been under house arrest for 15 years after disputing the results of the 2009 presidential election.
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