Iran is deploying new tactics and escalating attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to keep global oil prices high and influence the U.S. midterm elections, according to senior Iranian officials, driving ship strikes to a record high.
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faced an unprecedented surge in attacks this October as Iran intensified its military campaign in the strategic waterway. Two ships sank near the strait in a single 24-hour period, according to maritime officials reporting on the rising toll. A container ship and a dry bulk carrier sank near the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by projectiles, according to data from the International Maritime Organization.
The sinkings mark the second and third vessels lost since the conflict began on February 28, amplifying danger across a chokepoint that carried roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war. Viral footage circulating in mid-October showed shipping containers and floating cargo drifting in the strait, with small boats collecting scattered goods.
Tehran Shifts Tactics Ahead of the U.S. Midterms
Behind the stepped-up tempo lies a deliberate strategy directed at the upcoming U.S. elections. Two senior Iranian officials told reporters that Tehran adopted new offensive tactics and altered the pace of its strikes to keep global energy prices elevated and pressure Washington.
The leadership in Tehran anticipates that President Donald Trump will be less sensitive to high fuel prices after the midterm vote scheduled for November 3, prompting a race to inflict maximum economic pain. The aim is to frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices,
one senior Iranian official stated.
I think the Iranian regime risks misreading President Trump, as it has done before. He's not on the ballot personally during the midterm elections in November, so its attempts to "punish" him will have limited impact. This is different from the 1980 election. It could backfire…
As part of this shift, the geographic scope of operations expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz to include the Gulf of Oman and surrounding waters. United States forces countered by tracking spotter networks; on October 6, U.S. forces destroyed an Iranian-affiliated dhow in the Gulf of Oman after determining its occupants were calling in targets to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Record Attacks and the Mine Threat in Mandatory Lanes
Maritime monitoring agencies recorded a high number of vessel attacks in October, making it the highest weekly total since the conflict started. Ten of those attacks occurred directly in the Strait of Hormuz, with others in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
The vulnerability of commercial shipping is amplified by the physical geometry of the waterway. Under the International Maritime Organization Traffic Separation Scheme, all compliant vessels are funneled through two prescribed lanes each 2 nautical miles wide, creating a narrow corridor where naval mines have devastating precision. On October 17 and 18, the IRGC Navy announced that two supertankers, each carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude oil, struck mines in the strait and caught fire.
United Nations maritime officials warned that the violence has left thousands of seafarers stranded near the waterway. The UN’s top maritime official urged crews not to transit the Strait of Hormuz until safety guarantees are established, noting that 24 seafarers have died since February 28 across 100 confirmed maritime incidents.
Crude Exports Drop as Oil Prices Push Past $100
The campaign has taken a heavy toll on energy flows and regional budgets. Oil throughput through the strait dropped sharply, with an average of just under 12 million barrels per day flowing during the week ending October 13, down from a pre-war baseline of 17 million barrels daily. U.S. crude futures topped $100 a barrel in mid-October, matching expectations among Wall Street analysts that expensive energy would punish ruling political figures at the ballot box.
The economic shock extends across the region. Saudi Arabia’s 2026 budget deficit forecast widened to 245 billion riyals, driven by export constraints rather than production policy, as the kingdom’s fiscal plan relies heavily on reopening maritime trade corridors controlled through Washington-Tehran negotiations.
If America leaves the region, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and collective security will be established with the participation of the region’s countries, and the global economy will improve. If it doesn’t leave, we’ll expel it.
Mohammad Akraminia, Iranian Army spokesperson
Despite the mounting hazards, commercial operators continue to test the route drawn by lucrative freight rates and strong energy demand in Asian markets. While major container lines mostly avoid the area, smaller operators running the Hormuz shuttle maintain that financial incentives outweigh the daily risk of projectile strikes and naval mines.
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