Iran War: Trump’s Hard Choices – One Month In

Donald Trump is weighing options to de-escalate or further engage in the ongoing conflict with Iran, as the war enters its second month with global energy prices rising and his approval ratings declining. Iran continues to disrupt Gulf oil and gas shipments and launch missile and drone strikes across the region.

Struggling to Contain Expanding War

Despite diplomatic efforts, Trump is facing challenges in containing the widening Middle East crisis. A senior White House official stated Trump wants to avoid a “forever war” and find a negotiated exit, aiming for a timeline of four to six weeks, though that timeline is considered “shaky.” Simultaneously, Trump has threatened further military escalation if talks fail.

Trump has pursued diplomatic overtures, including a 15-point peace proposal sent through Pakistan, but the prospects for fruitful negotiations remain unclear. Jonathan Panikoff, former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, noted the lack of clarity regarding a satisfactory outcome.

The White House maintains the campaign “will conclude when the commander-in-chief determines that our objectives are met,” with Trump having outlined explicit goals. Thousands more US troops are being deployed to the region, and Iran has been warned of an intensified onslaught, potentially including ground troops.

Analysts suggest a potential scenario involves a major air assault, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury,” to degrade Iran’s military capabilities, followed by a declaration of victory. However, this hinges on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran currently refuses to allow. Trump has expressed frustration with European allies’ refusal to provide warships to secure the waterway.

Fraught Diplomacy Complicated by Killings

Trump’s 15-point plan mirrors proposals previously rejected by Iran and includes demands such as dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, curbing its missile arsenal, abandoning proxy groups, and relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has deemed the offer unfair and unrealistic, while remaining open to indirect contacts.

Despite Trump’s assertion that Iran is “begging” for a deal, Iranian leaders appear unhurried, believing they can claim victory simply by surviving the conflict. The replacement of leaders killed in US-Israeli airstrikes with more hardline successors has further complicated diplomatic efforts, and Iranian rulers distrust Trump due to past airstrikes during negotiations.

Israeli officials have expressed unease that Trump might make concessions that could limit their ability to conduct further strikes against Iran. Washington’s Gulf allies may also resent a hasty US exit, fearing a wounded and hostile neighbor.

Trump is employing contradictory messaging, issuing pronouncements to calm markets while simultaneously issuing threats that spike energy prices. Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies described this as a tactic to keep opponents off-balance.

The White House official stated Trump and his team are “well-prepared” for Iran’s response in the strait and are confident it will reopen soon. Trump has paused threats to destroy Iran’s power grid to allow for diplomacy, extending the pause for another 10 days.

Opinion polls indicate the war is unpopular with Americans, and Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36 percent, the lowest since his return to the White House, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday. Republicans are concerned about the political fallout and the upcoming midterm elections.

Trump’s miscalculation lies in the extent of Tehran’s retaliation, which has included strikes against Israel and neighboring Gulf states, and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting the global economy. Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the Iranian government may be able to withstand more pain for longer than its adversaries.