Iran-backed militias across the Middle East are increasing attacks against Israel, the US, and their allies in response to the ongoing joint US-Israeli offensive against Tehran, escalating the conflict and raising concerns of wider regional chaos.
Escalating Conflict in the Middle East
Israel and the US have been targeting Iran’s network of militant groups, with Iraq emerging as a central location in this escalating confrontation. Dozens of attacks have been launched by militias in Iraq since the conflict began on Saturday, targeting Israel and US bases in Jordan and Iraq itself.
Recent attacks have also targeted infrastructure belonging to Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups in the Kurdish-dominated north of Iraq. Analysts and former regional intelligence officials report that Israel and the US are attempting to weaken the capabilities of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq through airstrikes and special forces operations.
Iraq, a proxy battleground between the US, its allies, and Iran since the 2003 US-led invasion, is attempting to avoid direct involvement in the new conflict. The militias are primarily recruited from Iraq’s Shia community and receive orders from senior officers within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Proxy Warfare and Potential Expansion
On Tuesday, US officials indicated they were considering mobilizing Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, potentially for an invasion of Iran’s north-west region. Several Iran-backed armed factions have claimed responsibility for attacks on the US base at Erbil airport in northern Iraq. Additionally, drones and missiles have been launched from western Iran towards targets in Jordan, and a missile was fired from southern Iraq into Kuwait.
Militias issued a joint statement on Thursday warning European countries against joining the war and threatening their “forces and bases in Iraq and the region.” Iraqi security forces reportedly thwarted a missile launch from Basra province intended for a neighboring country, seizing a launch platform with two ready-to-fire missiles.
Israel’s military confirmed the launch of drones from Iraq towards Israel on Wednesday evening, though the number was described as “not significant.”
Michael Knights, an Iraq expert at Horizon Engage, stated that Iran-backed Iraqi groups are attempting to define their relevance and respond to recent events.
Clandestine Counteroffensives and Attacks
A clandestine counteroffensive appears to be underway, with militia bases south of Baghdad and near Nasariya and Basra coming under attack from small “suicide drones.” These attacks have reportedly killed 15 fighters, primarily from Kataib Hezbollah, the most powerful pro-Iran group based in Iraq.
Unexplained blasts have also disabled Iraqi government radar systems monitoring air traffic. While officials have not commented, sources suggest Israeli intelligence services or special forces may be responsible, with some suggesting potential US involvement.
Iran has invested heavily in a network of militant groups across the region to deter attacks on Iran and project influence. Israel has launched an offensive in Lebanon following Hezbollah’s involvement, which included an attack on Israel and a drone launch towards a UK base in Cyprus.
Weakened “Axis of Resistance” and Future Considerations
Successive Israeli offensives since the October 7th Hamas attack have significantly weakened the so-called “axis of resistance.” While Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen have remained on the sidelines of the current conflict, Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, emphasized that their actions are driven by survival and calculations not necessarily aligned with Iran’s interests.
Phillip Smyth, an independent analyst of Iran’s allies, suggested that Tehran may be holding the Houthis “in reserve,” but their leaders might also be “hedging their bets in case the Iranian regime collapses.”
Reports indicate attacks by an armed group affiliated with separatist movements among Iran’s Arab community against IRGC targets in south-western Iran. The “Ahwaz Falcons,” a newly formed group, claimed responsibility for a strike on an IRGC base in Ahwaz.
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