Middle Powers & a New World Order: Challenges Ahead

President Donald Trump’s recent comments about Nato and his renewed focus on American interests are prompting a reassessment of the post-World War II international order, raising concerns among allies and prompting discussion about a potential return to a world of Great Power rivalries.

In a speech at Columbia University’s Journalism School in January 2002, Allan Little reflected on the United States’ role in shaping the post-war world, noting the peace and prosperity it had fostered in Western Europe. He recalled a conversation with a student from Pakistan who likened the US to Imperial Rome, experiencing it as a protective force within its borders but as an arbitrary power from afar.

A new world order or back to the future?

During a recent visit to Davos, Trump signaled his intention to bend European nations to his will, even suggesting interest in purchasing Greenland. He also criticized Nato allies, claiming they had not contributed enough during the war in Afghanistan, prompting a rebuke from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Trump later praised UK troops on his Truth Social platform.

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The White House’s National Security Strategy outlines a plan to prioritize American interests, potentially utilizing economic and military leverage to align nations with US goals. This approach, reminiscent of historical Great Power dynamics, has raised concerns among smaller nations.

Re-interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine

Experts suggest a potential re-emergence of the Monroe Doctrine, a 19th-century US policy asserting dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Dr. Christopher Sabatini of Chatham House notes a historical pattern of US intervention in Latin America, while historian Jay Sexton argues Trump’s approach echoes a past era of unpredictable US foreign policy.

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While previous administrations have also sought greater burden-sharing from European allies, Trump’s tactics have prompted a new level of defiance and a call for “middle powers” to act collectively, as voiced by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos.

The current situation represents a potential rupture with the post-World War II rules-based international order, though some argue the US has historically not always adhered to these rules. The challenge for nations now lies in navigating a world potentially returning to Great Power competition and ensuring the preservation of democratic values and international cooperation.