Myanmar’s opposition fears ASEAN betrayal

ASEAN nations are grappling with ongoing challenges in Myanmar following the 2021 military coup, as the Philippines takes on the chairmanship for 2026. Concerns are mounting that the recent Myanmar election, widely viewed as illegitimate by opposition groups, may be tacitly accepted by some ASEAN members.

ASEAN’s Response to the Myanmar Crisis

Over the past five years, ASEAN has struggled to effectively address the crisis in Myanmar following the February 1, 2021, military coup. Ninety-nine civil society organizations (CSOs) protested the January 6 visit of Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro, the newly-appointed Special Envoy of the ASEAN Chair on Myanmar for 2026, to Naypyidaw, where she met with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.

The regional body also faces ongoing tensions in the South China Sea and between Thailand and Cambodia. However, the Myanmar crisis and adherence to the 5-Point Consensus (5PC) remain significant hurdles.

Military-Proxy Party Wins Election

In December and January, the military-proxy Union and Solidarity Development Party (USDP) secured a majority of seats in an election marked by low voter turnout – significantly lower than the junta’s claimed 54 percent – and the exclusion of Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy party.

A January 29 ASEAN foreign ministers’ statement following a meeting in Cebu made no explicit rejection of the Myanmar junta election, instead emphasizing the largely discredited 5PC. A representative from Myanmar was also invited to the Cebu meeting.

While ASEAN members did not endorse the junta-run elections, Philippine Foreign Minister stated that “a good number” of the 11 nations believed “these elections might be something positive.”

The ASEAN statement read: “We had candid discussions on the evolving developments in Myanmar and reaffirmed our commitment to advancing the implementation of the 5PC. We noted that any meaningful political progress can only take place in an environment of peace, security, and inclusivity, supported by the cessation of violence and inclusive dialogue among all relevant stakeholders. We reiterated our united position that the 5PC remains our primary reference to address the political crisis in Myanmar and further affirmed the corresponding Leaders’ decisions. We emphasised ASEAN’s commitment and role to assist Myanmar in charting a future and a peaceful and lasting solution to the crisis which is both Myanmar-owned and Myanmar-led, while reaffirming that Myanmar remains an integral part of ASEAN. We reaffirmed ASEAN’s position on the importance of free, fair, peaceful, transparent, inclusive, and credible general elections in Myanmar. We noted the conclusion of the three phases of the general elections.”

ASEAN Envoy Action

Khin Ohmar of NGO Progressive Voice initially worried about Foreign Secretary Lazaro’s visit to Myanmar, fearing the junta would exploit it for propaganda. However, the ASEAN envoy has since engaged with Myanmar opposition figures behind closed doors. Despite this, Khin Ohmar expressed concern that ASEAN has failed to secure any of the points outlined in its 5PC.

“If they think they can just have the military and the revolutionary side meet, drink tea or coffee, and everything will be fine, then they don’t understand Myanmar’s political history or real ‘positive peace.’ Just stopping the shooting for a few months is not a real or sustainable solution; that is what we call ‘negative peace,’” she said.

Opposition NUG Seeks Solution

Nay Phone Latt, spokesperson for the opposition NUG Prime Minister’s Office, hopes ASEAN will not recognize the results of the Myanmar military junta’s national poll or offer legitimacy to the resulting administration. He noted the ASEAN statement did not recognize the election, only that it had been “noted.”

Nay Phone Latt acknowledged that some ASEAN countries may be more inclined to accept the election outcome, citing existing friendly relations between those nations and the Myanmar military. However, he emphasized that this does not reflect the will of the Myanmar people.

He predicts that Min Aung Hlaing will assume the President position following the USDP’s victory, and believes this will exacerbate the situation in Myanmar.

Fears About Offering Legitimacy

Many Myanmar NGO activists are concerned about ASEAN pursuing a solution that includes the military junta, as evidenced by the protest letter signed by 99 organizations.

Activist Mulan with NGO Blood Money Campaign stated that ASEAN continues to push for a solution through negotiation involving all stakeholders. She also alleged that countries like Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand are providing financial, technological, and logistical support to the junta.

“During these five years, both ASEAN leaders and Lazaro have frequently used the word ‘peace’ for Myanmar, but their way of approaching the terrorist military junta is wrong,” said Mulan. “If they really want to solve Myanmar’s affairs, the approach of meeting, talking, shaking hands, and issuing statements — without doing a single thing that can take action against the terrorist military junta…this does not work at all.”

Unity Viewed as Lacking

NUG spokesperson Nay Phone Latt noted that the diversity and lack of cohesion among Myanmar opposition groups pose a challenge when interacting with ASEAN. He stated that efforts are underway to strengthen cooperation in both military and political spheres, with a goal of forming a stronger leadership group within the year.

He recognizes a stronger sense of resistance unity is needed to make it easier for ASEAN to engage with the voices of the Myanmar people who are seeking “system change” and not “regime change.”