PMD Forecasts Normal Monsoon Rains But Warns of Glacial Melt Risks

Warmer conditions are expected to persist across most of the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region, with the most significant positive temperature anomalies likely appearing over the eastern parts of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and surrounding areas. According to DAWN, the PMD notes that these elevated temperatures could speed up seasonal snow and glacier melt, which in turn enhances river flows during the monsoon.

Glacial Melt and Hydro-Meteorological Risks

While near-normal rainfall generally supports water availability, the intersection of heavy rain and rapid melting creates a volatile environment in vulnerable valleys. The PMD warned that intense, short-duration rainfall events are capable of triggering slope failures, debris flows, landslides, and flash floods. These risks are heightened by the potential for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFS).

This seasonal assessment aligns with outlooks from several international bodies, including the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre (APCC), the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), as well as the 34th Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-34).

Road Closures in Gilgit-Baltistan

The theoretical risks of the monsoon have already manifested as physical disruptions in Gilgit-Baltistan. River erosion and flash floods have damaged both private and public property, while landslides have severed critical transport links.

According to the Gilgit-Baltistan Communication and Works Department, the Astore Valley Road has been closed to traffic because of large rockfalls and landslides at several sections. In upper Hunza, landslides have blocked the only connecting roads to Misgar Valley and Chipurson Valley. Additionally, the only land route connecting the remote village of Misgar in upper Hunza remained blocked following mudflows and landslides caused by rainfall.

Weather Conditions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PMD reports that several districts are expected to experience rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds, even as provincial weather remains hot and humid. The forecast indicates rain with gusty winds and thunderstorms in the following areas: upper and lower Kohistan, upper and lower Dir, upper and lower Chitral, Swat, Shangla, Malakand, Buner, Bajaur, Kolai Palas, and Torghar.

The department also predicted chances of rainfall and thunderstorms in Nowshera, Mardan, Swabi, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Battagram, Charsadda, Peshawar, and Khyber, as well as Kurram. Further showers, dust storms, or strong winds are expected in Kohat, Karak, Hangu, Orakzai, and North and South Waziristan.

Despite the possibility of rain, the PMD stated that most parts of the province are likely to experience hot and humid conditions. High temperatures have been recorded across many districts: Peshawar Airport recorded a maximum of 40 degrees Celsius, while Bannu, Peshawar city, and Dera Ismail Khan recorded temperatures around 39 degrees Celsius. In mountainous areas, conditions were comparatively cooler, with Balakot at 34 degrees Celsius, Kakool at 31 degrees Celsius, Parachinar at 30 degrees Celsius, and Chitral, Dir, and Drosh at about 33 degrees Celsius. The coolest temperatures were reported in Malam Jabba at 24 degrees Celsius and Kalam at 23 degrees Celsius.

Recent rainfall was reported in some areas, with Cherat receiving 2 millimetres of rain, and Mammad Gat, Kakool, and Kalam recording around 1 millimetre. Officials have advised residents, particularly those in open areas or near streams and rivers, to remain cautious during stormy conditions and follow safety instructions and weather updates.

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