Researchers have identified a rare “annular warming” pattern in the tropical Pacific that could elevate a predicted 2026 El Niño event to the super El Niño category.
- A rare ring of warm water has appeared in three separate Pacific regions, a pattern not seen with such intensity in 40 years.
- Climate models indicate this warming ring could add nearly one degree Celsius to predicted peak temperatures.
- Stored heat in the upper ocean and wind bursts in March 2026 have increased the probability of an extreme event.
Rare pattern in the tropical Pacific
In early 2026, scientists observed warm waters appearing simultaneously in three distinct regions: near Indonesia, off Central America, and along South America. Together, these regions formed a ring of warmth surrounding a cooler central zone.
This phenomenon, known as annular warming, has not been seen at this level of intensity for at least four decades. Researchers noted that even previous extreme El Niño events did not exhibit this specific structure.
Record-breaking heat below the surface
Beyond surface temperatures, scientists found that the upper ocean is currently storing more heat than it is releasing. This stored energy is a critical factor in shaping future climate events.
“The tropical Pacific exhibits an unusual annular warming pattern in spring 2026, which is the largest observed in the past 40 years,” said Tao Lian, a professor at the Second Institute of Oceanography and lead author of the study.
Lian stated that while current heat content is sufficient for a moderate El Niño by the end of 2026, the annular warming could push the event into the super category.
The mechanics of the warming ring
The combined effect of the three warm regions is significantly more powerful than any single region acting alone. Warm water in the northeast and southeast can move toward the equator via feedback between temperature, wind, and evaporation.
Meanwhile, warm waters in the western Pacific can trigger wind changes that push heat eastward along the equator. When these three regions warm together, the system receives multiple simultaneous pushes rather than a gradual shift.
Early warning signs for a super El Niño
The current conditions are linked to a recent La Niña phase, during which strong winds trapped warm water in the western Pacific below the surface. This stored heat now acts as a “compressed spring” that can move eastward to support El Niño growth.
In March 2026, researchers recorded a strong burst of westerly winds in the western Pacific, an event that often precedes major episodes. Dake Chen, a senior researcher and co-author of the study, noted that these high-frequency atmospheric fluctuations increase the probability of a super event.
Climate model simulations
To test the impact of the warming ring, researchers used advanced climate models. In the primary experiments, every simulation predicted an El Niño by the end of 2026, with strength reaching super-event levels.
When researchers removed the annular warming pattern from the models, the predicted event weakened significantly, dropping from a super El Niño to a moderate one. The warming ring alone added nearly one degree Celsius to the predicted peak.
Potential global impacts and uncertainty
If a super El Niño develops, the effects could be disruptive worldwide. Southeast Asia and Australia may face droughts, while South America could experience heavy flooding. Additionally, fisheries may decline and coral reefs may suffer bleaching.
Despite the strong signals, scientists caution that forecasts remain uncertain. Sudden wind bursts and influences from other oceans can cause atmospheric systems to behave unexpectedly.
The study is published in the journal Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research.
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