Encouraged by more positive news on the front of the fight against the pandemic, the officials of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Monday presented more optimistic forecasts for the evolution of economic activity around the world, now pointing to a pace of growth in Portugal that is in line with what is also projected by the Government.
In the report updating its prospects now published, the OECD points to a variation of the Portuguese GDP during this year of 3.7%, which will be followed by a new acceleration of pace, with a growth of 4.9% in 2022. numbers represent a significant upward revision of the OECD projections for Portugal, as in December this entity forecast growth rates of only 1.7% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022.
The numbers now presented are below but close to the targets set by the Government in the Stability Program released in April. The executive forecasts a growth of 4% this year and 4.9% in 2022, and João Leão has, in recent weeks, been considering the hypothesis that the pace of recovery could be higher.
The upward revision of the OECD for Portugal is in line with an increase in optimism regarding the evolution of the situation at the international level. The Paris-based organization had already in March revised upwards the forecasts for the main world economies. And now you’ve improved your estimates again. The growth of the world economy is now placed at 5.8% this year and 4.4% next, when in March the forecast values were 5.6% and 4%, respectively.
In the case of the euro zone, after forecasting growth in March of 3.9% for 2021 and 3.8% for 2022, the OECD now points to a GDP variation of 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively.
The reasons for the greater optimism in the world are linked, as the report explains, mainly to the fact that, “in advanced economies, the progressive application of an effective vaccine has started to allow more intensive activities in contacts to gradually open up”. However, the OECD warns that “the risk of sufficient post-pandemic growth not being achieved or shared by all is high”.
In the case of Portugal, the organization points out that the recovery in important sectors such as tourism and other services will be made “gradually”, but reveals, on the other hand, confidence that there will be a “strong activity in the manufacturing sector” and that greater absorption of European funds, in particular due to the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, lead to stronger investment and export growth.