Former U.S. officials have voiced concerns that the deployment of military assets to the Middle East amid the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is diminishing America’s deterrence capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly as China increases its military activity around Taiwan.
Shift of Military Assets Raises Concerns
Reports indicate that portions of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) missile defense system in Korea have been moved to the Middle East. Additionally, over 2,000 U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) in Japan are being dispatched to the region. Currently, there is no U.S. aircraft carrier operating in the Indo-Pacific.
“A very large component of the American military capability that is there to deter in the Indo-Pacific has been vacated,” one former U.S. official stated. “Some of the Marines have left […] and some of the capabilities that have been withdrawn from Korea after painstakingly putting them in there. So deterrence has been shifted at a time that China is launching an unprecedented number of sorties around Taiwan.”
The relocation of the Thaad system follows a challenging installation process in South Korea’s Seongju county in 2017, which sparked diplomatic tensions with China and protests from local residents.
The shift is “surprising,” according to one former official, who noted that even during periods of significant preoccupation, the U.S. had not previously reduced its presence in the Indo-Pacific to this extent. “Even during the worst periods of preoccupation, we didn’t vacate in the way that we are doing now,” he said.
The USS George Washington (CVN-73), homeported in Yokosuka, Japan, is currently undergoing maintenance.
Potential for ‘Boots on the Ground’ in Iran
Another former U.S. official expressed particular concern over the departure of the 31st MEU, suggesting it could lead to “boots on the ground in Iran.” The MEU is described as the U.S. military’s “rapid reaction force” and “911 force” for responding to crises.
These deployments follow the release of the National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy in December and January, which emphasized defending the U.S. homeland and the Western Hemisphere, and deterring Chinese threats. However, the recent movements of military assets raise questions about the U.S.’s ability to prioritize these strategic goals while simultaneously addressing the situation in the Middle East.
“It’s also the case that friends like Japan took solace from statements in those documents about how the Middle East was no longer going to consume American attention, that we are going to shift our focus elsewhere to where American interests really lie,” a former official said. “And this raises the prospect that once again, the U.S. will be distracted and bogged down in the Middle East at a time when the deterrence problem in East Asia has never been greater.”
Upcoming Meeting with Japan
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s upcoming visit to the White House is occurring at a “fraught” moment, as the U.S. engages in conflict with Iran. President Trump has reportedly called on Japan, Korea, and other countries to send ships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route.
Officials cautioned against underestimating the pressure Trump may place on Takaichi, emphasizing the importance of her “political dexterity” in navigating the situation. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a meeting between two leaders, between the U.S. and Japan, that carried these stakes,” one official stated. “I don’t remember a period like this […] economic, political, strategic and military peril […] all wrapped into one without sufficient preparation.”
While a public confrontation similar to the one between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is not expected, the Japanese leader is anticipated to face pressure for support.
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