Trump’s Instincts Fail: A Failing War Strategy?

Iran is leveraging its control of vital waterways, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, as a deterrent against military action, demonstrating it can be a more effective strategy than its network of regional allies and proxies. The country can enforce control of the Strait with drones, according to recent analysis.

Iran’s Strategic Waterways

For years, Iran invested heavily in building an “axis of resistance” comprised of groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, aiming to threaten and deter Israel. However, Israel has significantly degraded this network since the start of the Gaza war following the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023.

Iran is now showing that the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow and strategically important passage, can be a more potent deterrent. Iran can control the Strait using inexpensive drones launched from its mountainous interior.

Allies can be lost, but geographical features remain constant. The U.S. and Israel, along with the rest of the world, are recognizing that the Iranian regime will demand a significant role in any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, short of a large-scale military occupation of Iranian territory.

General Sir Richard Shirreff, former deputy commander of NATO, noted that war games simulating an attack on Iran consistently showed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Broader Regional Implications

This situation underscores the importance of comprehensive war planning, including strategies for initiating, concluding, and managing the aftermath of conflict. Some observers suggest that previous planning may have lacked these crucial steps.

The “axis of resistance” also includes the Houthis in Yemen, who recently fired missiles at Israel for the first time since the beginning of the current conflict on February 28. A resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea would threaten Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to Asia.

The Red Sea’s Bab al Mandab strait is another critical choke point for global trade. Attacks on shipping in Bab al Mandab and further south by the Houthis, as occurred during the Gaza war, could disrupt the trade route from Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal.

Such disruptions would trigger a severe global economic crisis.