President Donald Trump’s recently-issued National Security Strategy represents a significant departure in United States foreign policy and presents challenges for countries like New Zealand that rely on a rules-based international order.
Shift in US Foreign Policy
The document formalizes the most substantial shift in Washington’s global outlook since 1947, confirming, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned earlier this year, that the “West as we knew it no longer exists.”
The Trump administration framed Europe as being in decline, claiming liberal democracies in the European Union were on a trajectory towards “civilisational erasure.” On that basis, it pledged to support far-right populist parties that, in its words, “oppose elite-driven, anti-democratic restrictions on core liberties in Europe, the Anglosphere and the rest of the democratic world.”
The security strategy also stated Europe should “take primary responsibility for its own defence” while acknowledging “many Europeans regard Russia as an existential threat.” Simultaneously, the US intends to increasingly focus on its “Western Hemisphere.”
The document prioritizes state sovereignty, rejects multilateral institutions unless they directly advance US interests, advocates limits on immigration and free trade, and outlines a global order managed by a small concert of great powers: the US, China, Russia, India and Japan.
Alignment with Project 2025
Trump’s strategy formalizes positions and instincts increasingly evident throughout his second term. The document was foreshadowed by the administration’s alignment with Project 2025, a suite of policy proposals advancing an ultra-conservative vision domestically and internationally.
It was also signaled by territorial threats directed at democracies such as Canada and Denmark by Vice-President JD Vance, who claimed in his controversial February speech in Munich that European Union states suffer from a democratic deficit. Trump has repeatedly implied that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should largely end on Vladimir Putin’s terms.
New Zealand’s Response
The contrast with New Zealand’s worldview is stark. Since the end of World War II, all New Zealand governments have supported a rules-based system of international relations and multilateral institutions such as the United Nations.
The current coalition government, like many liberal democratic states, has adopted a “softly-softly” approach in response to the second Trump administration. This diplomacy has involved efforts to stay off the radar and exercising restraint when the Trump administration acts in ways that show little respect for New Zealand’s national interests.
As a result, the New Zealand government has declined to publicly support allies and partners such as Canada, Mexico and Denmark as they face pressure from Washington. It has also had little to say about the erosion of international law by the US and Israel in Gaza and beyond, refused to recognise a Palestinian state, and appeared publicly unwilling to challenge Trump’s trade protectionism.
The underlying assumption was that New Zealand was too small to make a meaningful difference and that avoiding offense could persuade Trump to soften key policies or negotiate exemptions from proposed tariffs.
This strategy has been flawed, depriving New Zealand of a clear stance on major international issues and risking being interpreted as supportive of Trump’s “America First” policies. Quiet diplomacy did not curb Trump’s assault on the multilateral order, nor did it prevent a 15% tariff on New Zealand exports to the US, despite US imports facing average tariffs of just 0.3%, with few restrictions.
Reassessing Alignment
For countries such as New Zealand, it is time to abandon the post-war ideal of the US as champion and ally of liberal democratic states. If alliances safeguard shared values and interests, New Zealand’s current relationship with Trump’s administration increasingly fails to meet that description.
New Zealand has continued to weigh participation in AUKUS Pillar Two and has joined US-led strategic initiatives, including Operation Olympic Defender, Project Overmatch and the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience, reflecting a desire to maintain defence and security cooperation.
However, Trump’s security strategy leaves the government with little room to avoid reassessing its stated goal of closer strategic alignment with the US. This pressure is reinforced by newly-released polling showing New Zealanders have low levels of trust in both the US and China acting responsibly in world affairs.
For a country that depends on rules rather than power, this scepticism points to the growing challenge of navigating a global order in which the assumptions of the post-war era no longer hold.
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