Ukraine Crisis: Europe’s Defence & Emergency Test

The European Union is preparing for an uncertain future marked by external threats and internal divisions, with the invasion of Ukraine underscoring the need for both unity and reform. A key debate centers on Ukraine’s potential membership, with proposals for unconventional accession to address existing obstacles and bolster the country’s security.

The Copenhagen Criteria and EU Enlargement

The European Union was founded on the principle of openness to new members, with the original six countries agreeing in 1951 that any European state could apply to join. While the process has evolved, the EU continues to maintain an open door, viewing enlargement as a means to project its values and enhance security and prosperity.

Enlargement, however, is a complex undertaking. It alters the balance of power, introduces new frontiers, and impacts the EU budget, while also potentially reviving historical tensions and challenging internal institutions. The EU’s “absorption capacity” is a key consideration in determining its future size and shape.

By the time of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the EU had doubled its membership. The prospect of applications from formerly communist countries led to the introduction of the Copenhagen criteria in 1993, intended to ease the path for candidates. These criteria require stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, and human rights; a functioning market economy; and the ability to implement EU law.

The criteria, while challenging for candidates, can also expose shortcomings within existing member states. Varied interpretations of the “rule of law” and a lack of scrutiny for current members have also been noted. Instances of conditional membership, such as Bulgaria and Romania in 2007, and unresolved disputes, like the border issue between Slovenia and Croatia, demonstrate the complexities of the process.

The Copenhagen criteria are not enshrined in the primary law of the Union, offering flexibility in their application. Unanimity in the Council and the consent of the European Parliament are required for opening accession negotiations, with final ratification requiring approval from all member states.

Fast-Tracking Ukraine’s EU Membership

Ukraine applied for EU membership immediately following the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. While Kyiv has made progress towards meeting the accession criteria, particularly through its 2014 Association Agreement with the EU, completing the conventional process during wartime is unrealistic. Immediate integration into the EU security framework is seen as crucial.

Hungary, under the influence of the Kremlin, is currently blocking progress on Ukraine’s accession, rejecting the Commission’s assessment and delaying the start of formal political negotiations. Moldova’s accession progress is also being impaired as a result.

EU membership is considered essential for securing Ukraine’s future, and should be a key component of any ceasefire or peace agreement. Preventing Russia or the US from hindering Ukraine’s path towards a European future is also vital. Speed is of the essence, given the potential for further Russian aggression.

Radical measures are needed to overcome the current obstacles. Proposals include upgrading and modernizing the Copenhagen criteria to reflect the current geopolitical landscape, revising enlargement procedures to allow the Commission to initiate and close chapters without unanimous Council approval, and establishing a probationary membership status for Ukraine.

Under this proposed system, Ukraine would become a member on probation, with reform programs implemented as post-accession transition arrangements. This would increase EU leverage over Ukraine’s administration and military. Kyiv would have a vote in the Council, but not a veto, in areas where chapters are satisfactorily closed. A target date of July 2029, coinciding with the next European Parliament elections, has been suggested.

Objections are anticipated, particularly from Hungary, but these must be addressed decisively. Legal challenges are also possible, requiring the Council legal service to prioritize the EU’s geopolitical strategy. Other candidate states may protest Ukraine’s privileged treatment, but the flexible procedures could be adapted for their benefit as well.

Towards a Common European Defence

The EU is also grappling with the need to strengthen its own defence capabilities. The constitutionally ordained route of unanimous Council decisions is currently blocked. A proposed solution involves establishing a European Security Council comprised of member states committed to military integration, including a core group of ‘E5+’ states (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland), along with the Presidents of the Commission and European Council, and a rotating cast of three others. The UK would be invited to participate in meetings.

This Security Council would be responsible for crisis management, coordinating armed forces, and overcoming fragmentation in the defence industry, as well as integrating Ukraine’s military. It could also lead to the creation of a European standing army of at least 100,000 troops.

To overcome national vetoes, a new intergovernmental treaty is proposed, modeled after the Schengen treaty, engaging willing states while excluding others. This treaty would confer decision-making powers on the European Security Council.

The current situation highlights the need for a contingency plan in case NATO becomes dysfunctional. Resuscitating the Berlin Plus arrangements of 2003, establishing a European military command and HQ, and pooling military and security intelligence are all considered necessary steps. The initial signatories to the new defence treaty could include most EU member states, along with the UK, Iceland, Norway, and Canada.

The proposed treaty would aim to align with the objectives of the European Union while allowing for more flexible decision-making procedures. It would also commit to utilizing existing EU institutions and programs, and to overcoming obstacles to a single market for the military industry.

Revising enlargement methodology and strengthening European defence are seen as crucial steps towards preventing disintegration and ensuring the EU’s future relevance. Ukraine’s potential membership is viewed as a catalyst for further integration and a demonstration of the EU’s ability to adapt to the challenges of the 21st century.

The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.