Negotiators from the United States and Iran are preparing for high-level talks in Islamabad to stabilize a fragile ceasefire strained by ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- U.S. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to lead the American delegation in Pakistan starting Saturday.
- Israel and Lebanon are expected to begin separate negotiations next week at the State Department in Washington.
- The spot price of Brent crude has risen approximately 35% since the war began, reaching around US$96 on Friday.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is set to depart Washington for the talks, while Iran has not yet named its delegation. Iranian semi-official news agency Tasnim indicated that negotiations could remain suspended unless Washington pressures Israel to halt attacks in Lebanon.
Regional tensions escalated Thursday night when Kuwait reported a drone attack, which officials blamed on Iran and its regional militia allies. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard denied the assault.
Negotiations Expanding to Israel and Lebanon
Separate negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are expected to begin next week in Washington. The talks are intended to be handled by U.S. ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa and Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorized these direct negotiations to seek the disarmament of Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants and the establishment of relations between the two neighbors.
Netanyahu stressed that no technical ceasefire exists between Israel and Lebanon, as the two have been at war since 1948. This announcement follows the deadliest day in Lebanon since the war began on Feb. 28, following intense Israeli air strikes in Beirut.
Pressure on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Talks
Despite the ceasefire announcement, both nations have applied significant pressure. U.S. President Donald Trump cast doubt on the agreement via social media, stating that Iran is doing a “poor job” of allowing oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump warned that U.S. forces would strike Iran more severely if the agreement is not fulfilled. Ship-tracking data early Friday showed a Botswana-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker suddenly turned around while attempting to navigate a route ordered by the Revolutionary Guard.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia reported that its crucial East-West pipeline, which avoids the Strait of Hormuz to carry oil to the Red Sea, was damaged in recent attacks.
Iranian news agencies published a chart marking a “danger zone” in the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the Revolutionary Guard may have deployed sea mines. This waterway typically handles 20% of all traded oil and natural gas.
Military Escalation in Lebanon
Lebanon’s health ministry reported that more than 300 people were killed and 1,100 wounded on Wednesday due to Israeli strikes on central Beirut and other regions. Israel stated these strikes targeted Hezbollah.
On Friday morning, the Israeli military reported striking approximately 10 launchers in Lebanon that had fired rockets toward northern Israel the previous day.
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, warned that continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah would lead to “explicit costs and STRONG responses.” Qalibaf has been mentioned as a possible negotiator to meet Vice President Vance in Islamabad.
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