Voters contend with ‘dodgy’ data in party leaflets for English local elections | Local elections 2026

Election leaflets distributed across England are utilizing misleading data and “grotesque” graphics to influence tactical voting for the May elections.

Unreliable Data in Local Campaigns

An investigation into campaigning material across England has revealed that local politicians are claiming only their party can win, or that opponents have no chance of victory, without sufficient evidence. Many of these claims rely on national polling data and “dodgy” bar charts to support local assertions.

Of the 331 leaflets analyzed from an online archive, 59 contained a chart or graphic. Fourteen of those were found to be unsourced or misleading regarding voting intentions.

Political analyst Peter Kellner, a former chair of YouGov, described the use of spurious claims and unreliable data as “grotesque.” He noted that while parties strive to convince voters they are the only viable option, commercial companies would not be permitted to make similar claims.

Party-Specific Misinformation

Evidence of misleading material was found across all major parties. In Ealing Common, a Labour leaflet warned voters not to “let Reform sneak in here” and labeled a Green party vote as a “Wasted vote!”

The chart used in that leaflet relied on the 2024 London assembly result for Ealing and Hillingdon—a significantly larger area than the specific ward—and added a bar reflecting national polling for Reform.

In Gateshead, a Green party leaflet claimed the party was the “only alternative to Reform,” citing a March YouGov poll. However, subsequent data from the same pollster placed the Greens third.

A Reform leaflet in Chelmsford featured a bar chart with no listed source. An online calibration tool indicated the chart was “completely out of proportion,” showing Labour and Conservative bars at approximately 9% despite the text claiming they were at 16%.

Similarly, a Liberal Democrat leaflet in Suffolk stated “It’s Lib Dem or Reform here,” despite its own accompanying bar chart showing the Conservatives in second place and the Lib Dems in third.

In Haslemere, a Conservative leaflet claimed “Reform can’t win here,” basing the assertion on data for the entire county of Surrey from the 2024 general election, which was deemed unreliable evidence for a local ward.

Impact on Democratic Trust

While it is considered reasonable for parties to address national swings in polling, experts argue that definitive claims about a party’s inability to win can mislead voters.

Kellner stated that this trend is part of a larger pattern that has eroded trust in politicians and institutions over the last two decades. He argued that a healthy democracy requires an open exchange of information based on truth rather than lies.