What a Gorton byelection win would mean for Reform, Greens and Labour | Byelections

The Gorton and Denton byelection is poised to be a key test for the major UK political parties, with potential outcomes ranging from a boost for Reform UK to a significant setback for Labour leader Keir Starmer. The results could signal shifts in voter intentions and the viability of progressive alliances.

Reform UK Win

A victory for Reform UK’s candidate, Matt Goodwin, would be the most significant indication yet that the party’s current poll lead reflects genuine voter support, rather than simply dissatisfaction with the current government. Goodwin has largely avoided detailed discussion of Reform’s policies and local issues, instead framing the election as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership.

Gorton and Denton was 440th on Reform’s target list, according to an insider. The party previously won the Runcorn and Helsby byelection almost a year ago by a narrow margin of six votes – a win in Gorton and Denton would suggest sustained momentum. Reform anticipated at least 1,000 activists would mobilize voters, particularly those who do not regularly participate in elections, a strategy that has proven successful in previous byelections.

Goodwin is described as a divisive and highly visible online figure with family ties to Manchester, though he has spent most of his adult life in the southeast of England. He is considered a polarizing figure, comparable to Sarah Pochin, who ran in Runcorn despite facing her own controversies.

A Reform victory would challenge the argument put forward by Labour strategists that progressive voters will unite to defeat Reform when employing tactical voting strategies.

Greens Win

A Green victory could be the most damaging outcome for Starmer’s leadership, demonstrating that the Greens are a serious progressive force, not merely a protest vote. It would also suggest that Labour is not the automatic beneficiary of an anti-Reform alliance and could raise concerns among Labour MPs in urban areas about the Green threat, potentially exacerbated by local election results in London.

Polls and betting markets have consistently favored the Greens, and a win would indicate that Hannah Spencer’s campaign has successfully capitalized on disillusionment among progressive voters. The Green coalition could attract former Labour voters seeking to express their dissatisfaction with Starmer, including many from the area’s large Muslim community, as well as students and young professionals in Levenshulme.

Labour has launched strong attacks on the Greens, criticizing their drug policy and accusing them of being willing to legalize drugs for teenagers, and labeling them as “Putin’s useful idiots” regarding their defense policy. Despite this, the Greens have mobilized a large number of activists, developing a canvassing app and routinely attracting up to 1,000 volunteers on weekends.

Volunteers have handwritten letters to every voter in the constituency and campaigned outside mosques during prayer times, focusing on Labour’s record on Gaza, and distributed leaflets in multiple languages. Some aspects of the Green campaign, including the use of images of Starmer meeting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in advertisements targeting the Muslim community, have drawn scrutiny.

The strength of the Green campaign has allowed the party to argue that Labour risks splitting the progressive vote and enabling a Reform victory. If Labour were to be relegated to third place, it would trigger recriminations for Starmer. However, if Reform wins and the Greens come second, it would raise concerns among the progressive left about which party is best positioned to challenge the right.

Labour Win

Labour activists have expressed unusual confidence in their ability to hold the seat throughout the campaign. Unlike typical incumbent campaigns that manage expectations, MPs and campaigners visiting Gorton and Denton have been surprised by the strength of the Labour vote.

Starmer visited the constituency this week, a move not typically intended to boost votes but rather indicative of growing confidence in a Labour victory. Labour has successfully energized its activist base despite widespread dissatisfaction with the government. The ban on Andy Burnham’s candidacy was not seen to dissuade activists, and the party has registered the most campaigners in its history to mobilize voters on Thursday.

Starmer’s allies who favor a more aggressively progressive stance have been pleased with his approach of drawing clear distinctions with Reform, particularly in response to Goodwin’s comments about the belonging of minority ethnic groups. One senior Labour source described the election as an “electoral training ground for a new approach of making values-led arguments for a diverse and tolerant society.”

Some on the left of the party may be uncomfortable with Labour’s aggressive targeting of the Greens, particularly regarding drug policy. Labour is focused on identifying and mobilizing its voters on polling day, repeatedly contacting them until they are certain supporters have cast their ballots. If Angeliki Stogia wins, Starmer is likely to be relieved that Labour is maintaining its progressive coalition and that Reform’s momentum may have peaked, potentially averting another challenge to his leadership.

However, even a narrow victory – with approximately 1,000 votes separating the top three parties – would likely prompt caution in overanalyzing the results, though that won’t prevent attempts to do so.