Ukraine War: Conflict Forecast & 2024 Outlook

The war in Ukraine is likely to continue throughout 2025, according to a former commander of the National Armed Forces (NAF). While no major military action is expected until spring, both sides have adapted to the technologies currently being used in the conflict.

Ukraine War Expected to Continue in 2025

Juris Maklakovs, a former NAF commander, stated that the side with more technology will have the advantage and be able to advance on the ground. Russia is currently making slow advances due to its greater supply of weapons, including missiles, and larger pool of human resources.

Ukraine, Maklakovs noted, possesses significant experience which partially offsets its resource limitations. “Ukraine has plenty of weapons, but it needs more people – recruited and professionally trained soldiers,” he stressed.

Effective weapons require skilled operators, and providing these specialists necessitates appropriate political decisions from Western countries, according to Maklakovs. He pointed out that despite discussions about Western military support over the past four years, the availability of weapons is only one part of the equation.

Maklakovs also observed that initial expectations of Russia’s rapid exhaustion have not materialized, with the country continuing to pursue its goals and seek additional resources from North Korea and China.

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, on the orders of President Putin. Representatives of the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) indicated earlier this year that a strategic change at the front is unlikely in the next six months.

The SAB assesses that Russia is prepared to continue hostilities into 2026, as its military tactics, economy, and society are increasingly adapting to a prolonged conflict. Russia has not abandoned its maximum goals for Ukraine, according to the SAB.