EU Summit Disrupted: New Crisis Derails “Crisis-Proofing” Plans

European Union leaders are navigating a delicate situation as they attempt to maintain positive relations with the United States while addressing concerns over Iran and internal divisions, particularly regarding financial support for Ukraine. The potential for escalating trade tensions with the U.S. is a significant factor influencing the EU’s approach.

Orbán and Ukraine Aid

Rising oil prices, exceeding $100 per barrel last week, have brought back concerns about energy security reminiscent of 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These price increases contributed to gains for far-right and far-left political movements, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has framed the war in Ukraine as excessively costly.

Orbán is currently threatening to veto a proposed €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine, creating a major point of contention at the upcoming summit. Frustration with Budapest is growing, with governments adopting a “much more direct, even confrontational” tone in private discussions, according to a senior diplomat.

One EU diplomat from a large country stated the risks of antagonizing the U.S. are too significant. “We don’t want trade escalation. We want the U.S. involved in Ukraine. We want them involved in NATO. Is it worth risking these objectives in order to be vocal about Iran? So far, not really.” The diplomat added, “Is it worth saying: you stupid fuckers, why did you do it? No, because we will pay a higher price for that.”

While a complete derailment of the agenda is unlikely, leaders are expected to agree on measures to reduce EU bureaucracy and establish a more integrated European financial market. However, the overall direction of the EU agenda continues to be heavily influenced by Washington.